Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Arko Corp. (ARKO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.86-4.46%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.13 → 0.13 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ARKO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain Adjusted EBITDA between $245M and $265M in 2026 | Arko aims for $245-$265 million adjusted EBITDA in 2026. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $245 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ARKO is an execution-led fuel distribution and convenience-store business, with growth tied partly to acquisitions and dealer conversions. Its multi-year view is intact, but the evidence points to a high-risk business with loss-making earnings quality and mixed execution signals.
The valuation evidence is neutral overall: ARKO is at a 3.63 peer premium, while the expectations gap is modest at 0.08. The model has low confidence, and the evidence does not indicate a strong fragility concern; optionality is the stated driver of valuation differences.
Near term, a recent earnings miss and a 41% estimated miss probability make the next report worth watching. Management has reaffirmed its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance, and quarterly results show progress toward it, while the latest acquisition and dealer conversions support expansion. Risk is now rated high, so maintaining guidance remains an important test of execution.
The main company-specific swing factor is whether ARKO maintains its guidance after raising it; a reversal could weaken confidence in management. Over the multi-year view, acquisition integration, added fuel volume and dealer growth matter. Sector signals are less certain: stronger results from major consumer discretionary companies could support sector momentum, while weaker results could remove that tailwind.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on guidance delivery and steady execution in acquisitions and dealer conversions, against a high-risk backdrop and recent earnings misses. The thesis remains intact, but the evidence is mixed and confidence is medium. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Net income is volatile but management wants to stabilize it. |
| Improving |
| Net income falls below -$6 million over next year |
Net income: $6.115M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net income stays above -$6 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 20266,115,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Generate stable operational cash flow near $18.67 million or more | Cash flow focus is clear but weak, with $18.67 million in early 2026. | Improving | Operating cash flow falls below $18 million over next year | Cash from operations: $45.441M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $18 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 202645,441,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.39 → $0.13 · observed estimates
$7.35B → $7.61B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.39 | $7,350,358,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.39 | $7,378,858,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.39 | $7,378,858,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.39 | $7,378,858,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.39 | $7,378,858,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.39 | $7,378,858,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.39 | $7,378,858,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.39 | $7,378,858,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.39 | $7,378,858,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.39 | $7,378,858,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.39 | $7,378,858,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.39 | $7,378,858,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.39 | $7,378,858,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.39 | $7,378,858,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.39 | $7,378,858,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.39 | $7,378,858,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.39 | $7,378,858,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.39 | $7,378,858,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.39 | $7,378,858,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.39 | $7,378,858,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.39 | $7,378,858,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.39 | $7,378,858,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.39 | $7,378,858,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.39 | $7,378,858,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.39 | $7,378,858,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.39 | $7,378,858,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.13 | $7,381,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.13 | $7,607,849,500 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.