Arko Corp. (ARKO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.89+1.24%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARKO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 51.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -5.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 56.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 44 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ARKO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-07
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 7, 2026, ARKO Corp., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference into this
Why it matters: Growth in same-store sales means more people are buying. It shows the company is doing well.
Supportive ifSame-store sales of products increased from last quarter. This shows positive trends.
Worry ifSame-store merchandise sales keep falling. This shows ongoing weakness in consumer spending.
Why it matters: Stable net income is key for long-term investor trust and company value.
Watch forNet income shows improvement, turning positive in Q2 2026.
Also watch forNet income remains negative or worsens in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow shows better financial health. It is crucial for funding operations and growth.
Supportive ifOperational cash flow increases from $18.67 million in 2026-Q1 to above $30 million in 2026-Q2.
Worry ifOperational cash flow drops further from $18.67 million in 2026-Q1.
Why it matters: This would indicate ARKO is on track to meet its full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is at or above $61 million. This supports the full-year guidance.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is below $61 million. This raises concerns about the annual targets.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$175 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $470 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,942 loss on $10,000 · 49.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping this margin shows good pricing and better operations.
Supportive ifMerchandise margin was above 34% for Q3.
Worry ifMerchandise margin was below 34% for Q3.
Why it matters: More dealer locations can help make more money and work better.
Supportive ifManagement says they will finish at least 75 more store conversions by year-end.
Worry ifManagement says fewer than 75 more conversions will happen by year-end.
Why it matters: Stable net income shows progress in reducing financial ups and downs.
Supportive ifNet income for Q2 shows no decline below -$6.64 million from Q1.
Worry ifNet income drops further below -$6.64 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Meeting this target is key to maintaining full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance. It shows the company's ability to manage costs and grow profits.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA was at least $61 million. This shows strong operational performance.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA was below $61 million. This suggests challenges in making money.
Why it matters: More cash flow means better cash generation and stronger financial health.
Supportive ifDiscretionary cash flow is more than the confirmed guidance of about $110 million for 2026.
Worry ifDiscretionary cash flow falls below the guidance of $110 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting this goal shows strong progress in the dealerization plan. It will boost cash flow.
Supportive ifDealer conversions reported at 500 or more locations by the end of 2026.
Worry ifDealer conversions are under 500 locations. This shows slow progress in the transformation plan.
Why it matters: Stable net income helps investors feel confident and supports long-term growth.
Supportive ifNet income shows less fluctuation, landing within a $1 million range for Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet income fluctuates more than $2 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Consumer spending impacts Arko's sales. Good trends could increase revenue.
Watch forAdvance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows consumer spending growth above 1% month over month.
Also watch forAdvance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows consumer spending decline or growth below 0%.
Why it matters: Finishing this acquisition will help ARKO grow its fuel distribution and cash flow.
Supportive ifThe acquisition of US Petroleum Partners will be done by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe acquisition is delayed or canceled, which affects growth plans.