Arko Corp. (ARKO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.86-4.46%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARKO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 7.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -3.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
ARKO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-07
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 7, 2026, ARKO Corp., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference into this
Why it matters: The USPP deal would add over 400 dealer sites and about 280 million gallons in annual fuel volume. Its closing and results will test the growth plan.
Supportive ifA filing confirms the USPP deal closed. Then APC reports about $30 million in added annual Adjusted EBITDA, or meets the deal's EBITDA targets.
Worry ifA filing shows the deal is canceled. Or APC reports that the acquired business misses its EBITDA targets in the first four full quarters.
Why it matters: Same-store merchandise sales fell 1.7% in Q2 as shoppers faced pressure. A return to growth would ease concern about weak store demand.
Supportive ifARKO reports Q3 same-store merchandise sales growth above 0% from a year ago.
Worry ifARKO reports Q3 same-store merchandise sales down 1.7% or more year over year.
Why it matters: ARKO reaffirmed this range after first-half Adjusted EBITDA reached $122.9 million. A full-year result in range would show progress on its main stated goal.
Supportive ifThe 2026 report shows Adjusted EBITDA of at least $245 million. This is within the reaffirmed $245 million to $265 million range.
Worry ifThe 2026 report shows Adjusted EBITDA below $245 million. Or management cuts the range before year-end.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$145 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $470 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,729 loss on $10,000 · 57.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.