Arko Corp. (ARKO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.89+1.24%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARKO
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $4.89, ARKO's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 66× p/e (5.9× the 11× p/e peer median, and 1.6× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~51% near-term growth vs our ~-5% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $3.24 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Even the durable-growth case — current growth held at sustainable margins — values it at about $4.05, at or below today's price, so you're paying beyond even the growth case. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcff | 12M | $0.86 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $2.59 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $16.00 | 9.0 | 2.28 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $4.89 | 14.2 | 0.34 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 50% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly — years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $0.22/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $0.84 |
| 11.4 |
| 0.07 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $27.48 | 0.4 | 68.46 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $3.09 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $3.06 | 41.5 | 0.07 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $0.92 | 11.4 | 0.08 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $2.45 | 14.2 | 0.17 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $1.48 | 11.4 | 0.13 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $5.40 | 41.5 | 0.13 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $1.55 | 14.2 | 0.11 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $1.48 | 11.4 | 0.13 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $5.40 | 41.5 | 0.13 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |