Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-03 · fmp
$3.36 → $3.35 · observed estimates
Aramark (ARMK)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$50.30-3.88%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.36 → 3.35 EPS · FY ending Oct 3, 2028 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ARMK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Net income growth through efficiencies and revenue gains | Net income improves with better efficiency. | Improving | Net income growth falls below 5% YoY next year | Net income: $97.658M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Net income grows at least 10% YoY. Target and observation units differ. Aug 11, 202697,658,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-03 · fmp
$3.36 → $3.35 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 16, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-and-efficiency business thesis, rather than a turnaround, with management priorities currently on track. The multi-year view is intact, though momentum has weakened and earnings quality is fragile.
ARMK is tagged as stretched and trades at a 1.71 premium versus peers, so valuation looks expensive relative to them. The estimated expectations gap is small, but confidence in that estimate is low; the evidence points more to valuation re-rating than to a large gap between expectations and execution.
Near term, recent results support continued revenue growth and margin expansion: fiscal 2026 revenue growth guidance was raised, and second-quarter revenue and operating income grew year over year. Debt reduction is progressing, but the leverage goal is only mixed; a guidance cut remains a key near-term risk, and recent company momentum has dropped sharply.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on sustaining organic growth and operating-income progress without a guidance cut. Sector signals also matter: continued earnings strength and higher guidance from BFAM could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that tailwind.
For the next 1 to 3 years, ARMK’s business execution supports an intact long-term thesis, but its expensive valuation and fragile earnings quality make delivery important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Aramark's published investment case. The stated target is 15% to 15.5% margin. |
| Broken |
| Operating margin falls below 14% in FY25 |
Operating margin: 3.75% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: 15% to 15.5% margin. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 25, 20253.746112 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of 7% to 9% in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Aramark's published investment case. The stated target is 7% to 9% YoY growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 9.33% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 7% to 9% YoY growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 20269.325896 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$23.61B → $23.66B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | $3.36 | $23,610,206,316 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.36 | $23,610,206,316 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.36 | $23,610,206,316 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.36 | $23,610,206,316 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.36 | $23,610,206,316 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.35 | $23,686,206,316 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.35 | $23,686,206,316 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.35 | $23,686,206,316 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.35 | $23,686,206,316 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.35 | $23,667,103,732 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.36 | $23,674,978,056 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.36 | $23,674,978,056 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.36 | $23,674,978,056 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.36 | $23,674,978,056 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.36 | $23,674,978,056 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.36 | $23,674,978,056 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.36 | $23,674,978,056 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.36 | $23,674,978,056 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.36 | $23,674,978,056 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.36 | $23,674,978,056 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.36 | $23,674,978,056 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.36 | $23,674,978,056 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.36 | $23,674,978,056 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.36 | $23,674,978,056 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.35 | $23,670,127,476 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.35 | $23,663,945,658 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.35 | $23,663,945,658 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.35 | $23,663,945,658 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.35 | $23,663,945,658 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.35 | $23,663,945,658 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.35 | $23,663,945,658 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.35 | $23,663,945,658 | 7 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.