Aramark (ARMK)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$50.30-3.88%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARMK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 17.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers
ARMK — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-07
Director — Antony F. Spring: Election of a new director to the Board.
Why it matters: Aramark has started work at one hyperscaler site and is preparing a second. More sites would show the new service is gaining ground.
Supportive ifAramark names another data center site where Nexus has started service, beyond the first site. Or it names a new client award.
Worry ifThe second site launch is delayed or canceled. Or by the next earnings update, Aramark reports no added site or client award.
Why it matters: Aramark has set a year-end debt goal and repaid $100 million after the quarter. The year-end result will test progress toward that goal.
Watch forAramark reports a year-end leverage ratio below 3.0x for the fiscal year.
Also watch forAramark reports a year-end leverage ratio of 3.0x or higher for the fiscal year.
Why it matters: Aramark raised its full-year growth range to 9%–10%. The next results test whether growth stays in that range.
Supportive ifFiscal 2026 organic revenue growth reaches at least 9%, within or above the 9%–10% outlook.
Worry ifAramark lowers its outlook below 9%, or reports full-year growth below 9%.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$72 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $204 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,612 loss on $10,000 · 16.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.