Aramark (ARMK)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$56.78-0.87%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARMK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 17.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ARMK — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-07
Director — Antony F. Spring: Election of a new director to the Board.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow shows good financial health. It allows Aramark to invest in growth.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations was above $400 million.
Worry ifCash flow from operations was below $300 million.
Why it matters: This would confirm Aramark's strong market position and ability to attract new clients. It supports future revenue growth.
Supportive ifThe company announced new business wins. These wins total more than $1 billion.
Worry ifNew business wins were below $1 billion.
Why it matters: If growth exceeds 12%, it shows Aramark is managing costs and operations better.
Supportive ifOperating income growth was above 12% for Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating income growth was below 12% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Progress in contracts could validate Aramark's entry into a new growth market.
Supportive ifThey announced a multi-year deal with a top global hyperscaler. The deal is moving forward as planned.
Worry ifNo updates on the hyperscale AI data center contracts in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows good cost control and efficiency. This is key for long-term profits.
Supportive ifOperating income growth was at or above +17%.
Worry ifOperating income growth was below +12%.
Why it matters: The launch of this agreement is crucial for Aramark's entry into the hyperscale AI data center market. It could drive significant revenue growth and improve margins.
Supportive ifThe launch of the agreement and its first revenue contribution were announced.
Worry ifNo announcement or delay in the launch of the agreement.
Why it matters: A drop in client retention can mean service problems or more competition. This can hurt future revenue.
Worry ifClient retention rate remains at or above 98% for the next quarter.
Less concerning ifClient retention rate falls below 98%. This shows possible service or competition issues.
Why it matters: An update may show that management is confident in keeping growth going. It shows how well the company is doing its job.
Supportive ifManagement raises the growth outlook for revenue to over +10% for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers the growth outlook for revenue to below +9%.
Why it matters: New client wins are crucial for revenue growth. Exceeding this figure would indicate strong demand for Aramark's services.
Supportive ifAnnounce new client wins totaling more than $1.6 billion in the next quarter.
Worry ifNew client wins fall below $1 billion in the next quarter.
Why it matters: New client wins are crucial for Aramark's growth and show its competitive position in the market.
Supportive ifAramark announces new client wins worth over $1.6 billion in fiscal 2026.
Worry ifNew client wins fall below $1 billion for the fiscal year.
Why it matters: The expansion of Aramark Nexus is key for growth in the AI data center market. Progress signals future revenue.
Supportive ifManagement says there is progress at many new sites for Aramark Nexus.
Worry ifNo new updates or progress for Aramark Nexus in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This launch could bring in new money and growth in a strong market. Success could also boost profits.
Supportive ifA contract has been signed with a hyperscale AI data center client.
Worry ifNo contracts or major progress has been reported in the AI data center market.
Why it matters: Keeping a leverage ratio under 3.0x shows strong financial health. It shows good debt management.
Supportive ifLeverage ratio reported below 3.0x at the end of the fiscal year.
Worry ifLeverage ratio reported above 3.0x at the end of the fiscal year.
Why it matters: If this growth happens, it shows strong demand and good execution. It shows Aramark can keep going in a tough market.
Supportive ifQ3 organic revenue growth reported at or above +9%.
Worry ifQ3 organic revenue growth was below +7%.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$72 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $186 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,015 loss on $10,000 · 10.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.