Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Arq, Inc. (ARQ)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - Pollution & Treatment ControlsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.40+29.73%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - Pollution & Treatment ControlsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.02 → 0.02 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ARQ yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Stabilize management team after recent officer changes | A primary condition in Arq, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No further key officer departures in next 4 quarters. | Under Pressure | Additional key officer departures occur within next 4 quarters | 1 key officer departure vs 0 allowed CAO Stacia Hansen resigned with severance in July 2026; new CAO hired externally in August 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a turnaround situation. The company is currently loss-making and has shown volatile management performance, which adds to the uncertainty of its recovery path.
The market seems to have priced in a low level of expectations, as ARQ is viewed as cheap compared to its peers. However, there is a significant expectations gap, indicating that investors are cautious about the company's future performance.
Management is focused on achieving revenue and adjusted EBITDA targets for 2026, but recent financial performance has been weak. The company has a 50% chance of missing its upcoming earnings, which adds to the risk profile.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to meet guidance and the performance of sector bellwethers like VLTO, CECO, and PCT. Positive trends in these companies could provide a tailwind, while misses could lead to further challenges for ARQ.
In the next 1 to 3 years, ARQ's performance will depend heavily on management execution and sector dynamics. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Arq, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.02 and positive free cash flow in FY26. |
| Broken |
| EPS remains negative or free cash flow stays negative in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.06 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.02 and positive free cash flow in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20260.06 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve 2026 revenue of $120-$125 million | A primary condition in Arq, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$122.5 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $120 million in FY26 | Revenue: $38.209M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$122.5 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202638,209,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Third Quarter 2026 Results Revenue totaled $38.2 million for the third quarter of 2026, reflecting an increase of 9% compared to $35.1 million in the prior year period.” “The Company continues to expect full-year 2026 revenue of $120-125 million and capital expenditures of $8-10 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.04 → $0.02 · observed estimates
$0.14B → $0.14B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.04 | $139,612,223 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.04 | $139,612,223 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.04 | $139,612,223 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.04 | $139,612,223 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.04 | $138,350,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.04 | $138,350,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.04 | $138,350,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.04 | $138,350,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.04 | $138,350,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.04 | $138,350,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.04 | $138,350,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.04 | $138,350,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.04 | $138,350,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.04 | $138,350,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.06 | $137,892,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.04 | $138,350,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.04 | $138,350,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.04 | $138,350,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.04 | $138,350,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.04 | $138,350,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.04 | $138,350,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.06 | $137,892,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.06 | $137,892,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.06 | $137,892,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.06 | $137,892,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.06 | $137,892,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.06 | $137,892,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.06 | $137,892,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.02 | $138,915,467 | 2 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.