Arq, Inc. (ARQ)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - Pollution & Treatment ControlsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.30+1.32%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - Pollution & Treatment ControlsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARQ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -63.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 72.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ARQ — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 10, 2026, Arq, Inc. ("Arq" or the "Company") issued a press release related to the filing of Arq's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended June 30, 2026, and posted to its website an investor presentation related to Arq's financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, in…
Why it matters: Progress in these talks could create value. It may also fund growth projects.
Supportive ifThere will be news about a big deal or partnership for the Corbin Facility.
Worry ifThere are no updates or bad news about the Corbin Facility talks.
Why it matters: The performance of the Industrials sector could impact Arq's growth potential.
Worry ifSector revenue growth speeds up above 5%. This supports Arq's growth chances.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth slows down below 5%. This shows wider challenges.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this revenue target would show progress toward the 2026 guidance of $120-$125 million.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue is $30 million or more. This shows strong sales growth.
Worry ifQ2 revenue is less than $30 million. This shows problems in meeting yearly goals.
Why it matters: Hitting the Adjusted EBITDA target is important for financial health. It shows progress.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is $15M or more for Q2. This shows a strong recovery.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is below $15M. This shows ongoing financial problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$198 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $571 loss on $10,000 · 5.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,784 loss on $10,000 · 77.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A steady cash balance shows good financial health. It helps keep operations and investments going.
Supportive ifCash balance reported above $3 million at the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifCash balance reported below $3 million at the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Finishing this review is key for better production and making more money.
Supportive ifThe GAC optimization review will be done by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifThere is no news about finishing the GAC optimization review by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this growth rate would show strong demand and pricing power in the PAC business.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth of 5% or more compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Successful testing could lead to significant revenue and margin growth starting in 2027.
Supportive ifManagement shares good results from customer testing of PAC for PFAS™.
Worry ifManagement says customer testing results are not good or are late.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would show better profits and better operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for 2026 reaches $17 million or more.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for 2026 is less than $17 million.