Arq, Inc. (ARQ)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - Pollution & Treatment ControlsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.40+29.73%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - Pollution & Treatment ControlsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARQ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -64.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 10.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 75.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers
ARQ — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 10, 2026, Arq, Inc. ("Arq" or the "Company") issued a press release related to the filing of Arq's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended June 30, 2026, and posted to its website an investor presentation related to Arq's financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, in…
Why it matters: Passing the tests could support a path to use Corbin Wetcake in asphalt. Arq says recent trials improved several test measures.
Supportive ifArq or its partner reports that the paving tests met agreed performance measures and names a next step.
Worry ifArq reports that paving tests failed, stopped, or did not lead to a next step with the partner.
Why it matters: Arq kept this target after Q2 revenue reached $29.9 million. Full-year results will show if sales stay on track.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 revenue is at least $120 million and no more than $125 million.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 revenue is below $120 million or above $125 million.
Why it matters: Arq has not finished its GAC review. Cost estimates still have wide contingencies, and the work could take about 12 months.
Watch forArq reports a completed GAC plan with revised costs, a build schedule, and returns that meet its targets.
Also watch forArq reports no go-forward GAC plan, higher cost estimates, or a delay beyond the stated 12-month build window.
Why it matters: Arq says customer tests are ongoing. A move from tests to sales could add volume and margins from 2027 onward.
Supportive ifArq reports successful customer tests and names a launch, customer order, or sales start for PAC for PFAS.
Worry ifArq reports failed tests, stops testing, or has no plan for customer sales by the April 2027 PFAS reporting deadline.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$201 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $571 loss on $10,000 · 5.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,441 loss on $10,000 · 74.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.