Armour Residential REIT (ARR)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$16.35+1.36%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Armour pays steady monthly dividends of $0.24 per share. Liquidity stays above $1 billion. The company raised $141.8 million in capital last quarter. Earnings per share are expected near $0.24 monthly.
Earnings missed last quarter and could stay weak. Revenue is expected to shrink about 21%. The stock is expensive compared to peers on some measures.
The price is about 23% below our fair value near $22. Analysts expect revenue to fall about 21%. We see value above the Street median price of $14.
Breaks if: capital raised falls below $141.8 million
Breaks if: monthly dividend falls below $0.24 per share
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround situation with a focus on stabilizing dividends and capital raising. The current thesis state is cautious due to recent weak financial performance and volatility in management execution.
The valuation indicates that ARR is considered cheap compared to its peers, with an expectations gap that suggests the market has already priced in some challenges. The stock's current pricing reflects a low fragility tier, indicating that significant negative surprises are not anticipated.
Fundamentals may remain under pressure in the near term, given the company's history of missing earnings expectations and the moderate risk environment. Management's focus on maintaining liquidity and dividends is a positive sign, but recent performance has been weak.
Key scenarios include the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which could benefit ARR and the broader Real Estate sector. Additionally, performance from sector leaders like AGNC, DX, and LADR will be crucial in determining ARR's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $0.24 monthly or $2.93 annually
Breaks if: liquidity falls below $1.0 billion
In the next 1 to 3 years, ARR's performance will depend on external economic factors and management's ability to execute on their priorities. Not investment advice.