Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Armour Residential REIT (ARR)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
$12.58-0.16%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.93 → 2.78 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ARR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Raise capital via stock offerings totaling about $142 million | The company raised $141.8 million in capital last quarter. | Intact | capital raised falls below $141.8 million | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ARR is a rate-sensitive real estate investment with a dividend-focused profile, but recent performance is weak rather than that of a steady compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state, and confidence in the evidence is low.
ARR is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are already cautious. The valuation signal is marked justified, with low fragility, but that does not remove the risk from weak results.
Near term, the recent earnings miss, softer momentum, and a 52% estimated miss probability point to continued execution risk. The monthly common dividend remained unchanged, and the economic net interest spread edged up, but Q3 brought a net loss and book value per common share declined.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends partly on whether the Fed begins cutting rates, which could support rate-sensitive real estate names. It also hinges on guidance at the next call and whether sector peers show weakness; a guidance cut or cracks across the sector would add pressure to the business setup.
For the next 1 to 3 years, ARR’s thesis rests on maintaining its dividend and managing portfolio risk while financial performance stabilizes. Current evidence is mixed, and the low confidence level calls for caution in reading the signals. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Armour pays steady monthly dividends of $0.24 per share. |
| Intact |
| monthly dividend falls below $0.24 per share |
Dividend per share: $0.72 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.24 per share monthly. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Oct 21, 20260.72 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS near $0.24 per share monthly or $2.93 annually | Earnings per share are expected near $0.24 monthly. | Intact | EPS falls below $0.24 monthly or $2.93 annually | Diluted EPS: $-2.26 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.24 per share monthly or $2.93 annually. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 21, 2026-2.26 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain liquidity above $1 billion | Liquidity stays above $1 billion. | Intact | liquidity falls below $1.0 billion | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.95 → $2.78 · observed estimates
$0.31B → $0.51B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.95 | $306,584,000 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.99 | $389,144,500 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.99 | $389,144,500 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.96 | $529,903,676 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.93 | $372,463,000 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.93 | $372,463,000 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.93 | $372,463,000 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.93 | $372,463,000 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.93 | $372,463,000 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.93 | $372,463,000 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.93 | $372,463,000 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.93 | $372,463,000 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.93 | $372,463,000 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.93 | $372,463,000 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.93 | $372,463,000 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.93 | $372,463,000 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.93 | $372,463,000 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.93 | $372,463,000 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.93 | $372,463,000 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.93 | $372,463,000 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.93 | $559,920,845 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.90 | $542,476,945 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.90 | $542,476,945 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.90 | $542,476,945 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.90 | $542,476,945 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.90 | $542,476,945 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.90 | $542,476,945 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.90 | $542,476,945 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.90 | $542,476,945 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.84 | $542,476,945 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.84 | $542,476,945 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.84 | $542,476,945 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.84 | $542,476,945 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.84 | $542,476,945 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.84 | $542,476,945 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.84 | $542,476,945 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.83 | $523,276,944 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.81 | $523,276,944 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.81 | $523,276,944 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.81 | $523,276,944 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.81 | $523,276,944 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.80 | $508,436,511 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.80 | $508,436,511 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.80 | $508,436,511 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.80 | $508,436,511 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.80 | $508,436,511 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.80 | $508,436,511 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.80 | $508,436,511 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.78 | $511,377,750 | 4 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.