Armour Residential REIT (ARR)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
$12.58-0.16%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -39.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 41.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 25 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ARR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-21
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 21, 2026 , ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its unaudited Q3 results and September 30, 2026 financial position. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report on Form 8-K. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (th…
Why it matters: Book value fell from $17.53 to $14.55 in Q3 as MBS prices dropped. A rebound would show the loss eased.
Supportive ifThe next results report book value per common share above $14.55.
Worry ifThe next results report book value per common share below $14.55.
Why it matters: ARR raised $205.7 million by issuing common shares in Q3, while book value fell. New shares and book value show the trade-off.
Watch forARR reports common share issuance and book value per share above $14.55.
Also watch forARR reports common share issuance and book value per share below $14.55.
Why it matters: Q3 earnings were $0.71 per share, below the $0.72 paid in dividends. More coverage would support the stated dividend plan.
Supportive ifThe next quarterly report shows distributable earnings per share of at least $0.72.
Worry ifThe next quarterly report shows earnings per share below $0.72, or a common dividend below $0.24 per month.
Why it matters: BUCKLER supplied 49.8% of repo funding in Q3. A lower share would reduce reliance on this affiliate.
Supportive ifThe next report shows BUCKLER below 49.8% of repurchase agreements.
Worry ifThe next report shows BUCKLER at or above 49.8% of repurchase agreements.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$86 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $267 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,390 loss on $10,000 · 33.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.