Armour Residential REIT (ARR)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$16.35+1.36%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -27.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 36.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers
ARR — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-27
Other Events. On August 27, 2026 , ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. ( “ ARMOUR”) announced a cash dividend of $0.24 per share, payable to holders of ARMOUR common stock for the month of September 2026, as set forth below: Holder of Record Date Payment Date September 15, 2026 September 29, 2026 A copy of ARMOUR’s press release announcing the dividend information is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by this reference.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend payout policy may show shifts in ARMOUR's financial plans.
Watch forManagement will keep or raise the dividend payout ratio.
Also watch forManagement plans to lower the dividend payout ratio.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it may show weaker finances and lower dividends.
Worry ifEarnings per share were below $0.72 for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifEarnings per share were at or above $0.72 for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Strong capital raising supports liquidity and growth. It shows investor confidence in ARMOUR.
Supportive ifARMOUR raises over $200 million through common and preferred stock offerings in Q3.
Worry ifCapital raised is less than $100 million. This suggests investor worries.
Why it matters: Raising a lot of capital helps growth and liquidity. This is important for ARMOUR.
Supportive ifCapital raised through offerings exceeds $200 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifIf capital raised is below $100 million, it may show funding challenges.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$76 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $239 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,679 loss on $10,000 · 16.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A higher economic return shows strong performance. It also shows good management.
Supportive ifQ3 economic return is over 4.8%. This shows good capital management.
Worry ifEconomic return drops below 0%. This shows poor performance.
Why it matters: Raising a lot of money would help with cash flow and growth plans.
Supportive ifThey announced raising over $200 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo capital raising or amounts below $100 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Stable dividends show financial health. Changes in dividends can change how investors feel and affect stock prices.
Watch forARMOUR maintains common stock dividends at $0.24 per share for Q3 2026.
Also watch forARMOUR reduces common stock dividends below $0.24 per share for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Stable dividends show steady income for investors. They also show good cash flow management.
Supportive ifCommon stock dividends confirmed at $0.24 per share for September 2026.
Worry ifCommon stock dividends cut below $0.24 per share for September 2026.
Why it matters: Strong liquidity helps ARMOUR keep paying dividends and manage risks well.
Supportive ifLiquidity was over $1 billion in Q2 2026.
Worry ifLiquidity was below $1 billion in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in leverage ratios show how well ARMOUR manages risk. High leverage can mean financial trouble.
Worry ifThe leverage ratio is improving. This shows better risk management.
Less concerning ifLeverage ratio gets worse, showing higher financial risk.
Why it matters: A higher ratio may mean more debt and risk for the company.
Worry ifThe debt-to-equity ratio was over 8.0:1 in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifDebt-to-equity ratio was at or below 8.0:1 in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop could show problems with the company's investments in the market.
Worry ifEconomic return was below 4.8% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifEconomic return reported at or above 4.8% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A change could reflect management's view on financial stability and cash flow.
Watch forAnnouncement of a common stock dividend rate change for October 2026.
Also watch forThe common stock dividend rate stayed at $0.24 for October 2026.