Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
AdvanSix, Inc. (ASIX)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$16.24+4.64%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.38 → 2.38 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ASIX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capex guidance of $75-$95 million for 2026 | Capital spending is guided down to $75-$95 million this year. | Intact | capex exceeds $95 million in 2026 | Capital expenditures: $20.714M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: <=95 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 202620,714,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ASIX is a higher-risk, loss-making business with weak recent performance, rather than a steady compounder. Its long-term thesis is on watch: recent results lag the industry, and management’s score has fallen, though the evidence does not show a fresh break.
ASIX is described as cheap versus peers, but the valuation model has low confidence and the overall value assessment is neutral. The expectations gap is negative, while the priced-in assessment is tagged as justified and fragility is low. This points to limited evidence that the market setup is unusually fragile, not to a clear valuation cushion.
Near term, earnings risk is elevated after a recent miss and a run of consecutive misses; the next call and any guidance change matter. Management is targeting lower turnaround costs and capital spending in 2026, but progress is mixed or behind, while second-quarter capital spending was consistent with reduced guidance. The steady quarterly dividend and announced share buyback are supportive actions, but they do not resolve weak earnings or the recent decline in management’s score.
The next-quarter setup depends in part on whether ASIX cuts guidance, which would add pressure to an already weak earnings picture. Over the multi-year view, execution on cost control and capital spending must improve without further deterioration in results. Sector bellwethers’ earnings and guidance are also a swing factor: continued strength could sustain the Materials tailwind, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ASIX remains a watch-stage thesis with elevated operating and execution risk, partly balanced by a supportive sector backdrop and stated cost-control goals. The evidence is medium confidence, and the thesis hinges on improved execution and earnings stability. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company keeps paying a $0.16 dividend per share. |
| Intact |
| dividend falls below $0.16 per share |
Dividend per share: $0.16 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0.16 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 20260.16 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “In addition, our non-manpower fixed cost savings program remains on track while we continue to anticipate 45Q carbon capture tax credits to support improved earnings and cash flow generation moving forward," concluded Kane.” “The Company is progressing through Front End Engineering and Design (FEED) work with a final investment decision targeted for the first half of 2027.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Reduce plant turnaround impact to $17-$22 million in 2026 | AdvanSix plans to cut plant turnaround costs to $17-$22 million in 2026. | Improving | pre-tax income impact exceeds $22 million in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.92 → $2.38 · observed estimates
$1.77B → $1.76B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.92 | $1,774,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.92 | $1,774,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.92 | $1,774,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.92 | $1,774,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.92 | $1,774,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.92 | $1,774,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.92 | $1,774,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.92 | $1,774,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.92 | $1,774,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.60 | $1,774,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.92 | $1,774,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.92 | $1,774,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.92 | $1,774,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.92 | $1,774,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.60 | $1,774,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.92 | $1,774,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.92 | $1,774,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.92 | $1,774,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.60 | $1,774,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.92 | $1,774,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.76 | $1,783,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.60 | $1,774,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.60 | $1,774,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.60 | $1,774,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.60 | $1,774,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.60 | $1,774,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.60 | $1,774,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.60 | $1,774,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.38 | $1,756,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.38 | $1,757,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.38 | $1,757,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.38 | $1,757,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.38 | $1,757,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.38 | $1,757,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.38 | $1,757,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.38 | $1,757,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.38 | $1,757,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.38 | $1,757,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.38 | $1,757,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.38 | $1,757,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.38 | $1,757,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.38 | $1,757,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.38 | $1,757,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.38 | $1,757,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.