AdvanSix, Inc. (ASIX)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$15.52-0.39%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ASIX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -75.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 10.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 86.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ASIX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 4, 2026, AdvanSix Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: The Hopewell project could add a new use for AdvanSix's ammonia platform. Management targets a final investment decision in the first half of 2027.
Supportive ifAdvanSix approves the DEF expansion by June 30, 2027, after its design work.
Worry ifAdvanSix delays the decision beyond June 30, 2027, or ends the project.
Why it matters: The ammonia platform expansion could increase future revenues. Updates will show if the project works.
Supportive ifThey finished the Front End Engineering and Design (FEED) for the ammonia platform.
Worry ifDelay in the FEED work or cancellation of the ammonia platform project.
Why it matters: Spring fertilizer sales fell as farmers cut purchases. Management also sees lower Q3 domestic prices and high sulfur costs.
Worry ifQ3 Plant Nutrients sales fall from a year ago, or domestic prices fall as management said.
Less concerning ifQ3 Plant Nutrients sales rise year over year and domestic prices do not fall sequentially.
Why it matters: Lower spending can support cash flow, but the company also plans growth work. Spending above the range would weaken its cost-control record.
Watch forFull-year 2026 capital spending is between $75 million and $95 million.
Also watch forFull-year 2026 capital spending tops $95 million or falls below $75 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$145 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $459 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,214 loss on $10,000 · 42.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Tracking turnaround costs helps us understand profits and how well the company runs.
Worry ifPlant turnaround costs reported at $17 million or lower.
Less concerning ifIf turnaround costs go over $22 million, it means there are operational problems.
Why it matters: Management said lower spending and working capital would boost second-half cash flow. Q2 operating cash flow was $10 million.
Supportive ifQ3 cash flow from operations exceeds $10 million.
Worry ifQ3 cash flow from operations is $10 million or less, with no sequential improvement.
Why it matters: Managing turnaround costs is important for making money. Staying within this range shows good cost control.
Supportive ifReported plant turnaround costs in 2026 remain within the $17-$22 million range.
Worry ifPlant turnaround costs are over $22 million. This shows poor cost management.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would signal a shift in the declining materials sector. This could improve investor confidence in AdvanSix.
Supportive ifAdvanSix reports positive revenue growth in its next earnings release on July 31, 2026.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains negative in the next earnings release.
Why it matters: Management aims to cut the income hit from plant turnarounds from about $25 million in 2025. A higher cost would miss that goal.
Worry ifThe 2026 pre-tax income impact from turnarounds is above $22 million.
Less concerning ifThe full-year impact is $22 million or less.
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted EBITDA fell 43% year over year, to $31.9 million. A further drop would show that weak sales and plant output still weigh on results.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is below $31.9 million, the Q2 2026 result.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA tops $31.9 million and adjusted EPS tops $0.19.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend policy may show financial stress. This affects investor confidence.
Watch forManagement maintains the dividend at $0.16 per share after Q2 earnings.
Also watch forManagement cuts the dividend below $0.16 per share after Q2 earnings.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows good cost and working capital management, helping long-term value.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations improves a lot in 2H 2026 compared to 1H 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains negative or worsens in 2H 2026.
Why it matters: This capex guidance shows management cares about costs and smart spending.
Supportive ifIn Q3, actual capital spending is within the $75-$95 million range.
Worry ifIf capital spending goes over $95 million, it may mean too much spending.