AdvanSix, Inc. (ASIX)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$17.45+1.45%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ASIX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -75.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 9.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 85.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ASIX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-07
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 7, 2026, AdvanSix Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: The ammonia platform expansion could increase future revenues. Updates will show if the project works.
Supportive ifThey finished the Front End Engineering and Design (FEED) for the ammonia platform.
Worry ifDelay in the FEED work or cancellation of the ammonia platform project.
Why it matters: A decline in ammonium sulfate pricing could hurt revenue and margins in Plant Nutrients.
Worry ifAmmonium sulfate prices fell in Q3 2026 due to competition.
Less concerning ifAmmonium sulfate prices stay the same or go up in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The financial impact of turnarounds will show how well the company manages costs.
Worry ifPlant turnaround costs impact pre-tax income by $17 million or less in 2026.
Less concerning ifPlant turnaround costs exceed $22 million in 2026.
Why it matters: Managing turnaround costs is important for making money. Staying within this range shows good cost control.
Supportive ifReported plant turnaround costs in 2026 remain within the $17-$22 million range.
Worry ifPlant turnaround costs are over $22 million. This shows poor cost management.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$175 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $452 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,910 loss on $10,000 · 39.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would signal a shift in the declining materials sector. This could improve investor confidence in AdvanSix.
Supportive ifAdvanSix reports positive revenue growth in its next earnings release on July 31, 2026.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains negative in the next earnings release.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend policy may show financial stress. This affects investor confidence.
Watch forManagement maintains the dividend at $0.16 per share after Q2 earnings.
Also watch forManagement cuts the dividend below $0.16 per share after Q2 earnings.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means the company is more efficient and financially healthy.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations shows sequential improvement in the second half of 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations continues to decline in the second half of 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on the DEF project show AdvanSix's growth plans and chances in new markets.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a final investment decision for the DEF project in the first half of 2027.
Worry ifDelay in the final investment decision for the DEF project beyond the first half of 2027.
Why it matters: Meeting capex goals shows AdvanSix is spending wisely in tough market times.
Supportive ifCapital expenditures reach at least $75 million for the full year 2026.
Worry ifCapital spending is below $75 million for the full year 2026.