Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
AerSale Corp. (ASLE)
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$4.82-3.02%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.27 → 0.27 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ASLE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Earnings per share recovering toward prior levels | A primary condition in AerSale Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.27 for full year 2026. | Broken | EPS falls below $0.20 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a turnaround situation, as ASLE is currently loss-making but is working on expanding its leasing portfolio and MRO capabilities. The current thesis state indicates that while there are some positive management priorities, recent financial performance has been weak.
The market appears to be pricing in a justified valuation that is cheap compared to peers, with a low expectations gap. However, the overall sentiment reflects a cautious outlook due to recent earnings misses.
Fundamentals may continue to struggle in the near term, as there is a 55% probability of missing earnings again. Management is focused on key priorities, but recent performance has not met industry standards.
The long-term thesis hinges on whether ASLE can successfully monetize its asset base and expand its leasing portfolio, as well as how sector bellwethers perform. Any cuts to guidance could negatively impact sentiment, while positive trends in the sector could provide support.
In the next 1 to 3 years, ASLE's performance will depend on management's ability to execute its priorities amidst elevated risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Its inventory position supports growth and shareholder value. |
| Intact |
| Inventory monetization stalls or reverses over next year |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Progress on expanding Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) capabilities | The company aims to expand maintenance and repair capacity. | Under Pressure | No meaningful progress or setbacks in MRO expansion over next year | MRO expansion stalled (qualitative) Q1-Q3 2026 earnings misses and analyst reports citing poor execution and asset monetization delays. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of at least 15% in the next 12 months | A primary condition in AerSale Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=15% YoY. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 10% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.74 → $0.27 · observed estimates
$0.42B → $0.34B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.74 | $420,273,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.74 | $420,273,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.74 | $420,273,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.74 | $420,273,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.74 | $420,273,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.74 | $420,273,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.74 | $420,273,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.74 | $420,273,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.74 | $420,273,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.34 | $354,247,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.74 | $420,273,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.74 | $420,273,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.54 | $370,873,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.54 | $370,873,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.54 | $370,623,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.54 | $370,873,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.54 | $370,873,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.54 | $370,873,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.54 | $370,873,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.30 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.30 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.54 | $370,623,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.54 | $370,623,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.54 | $370,623,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.54 | $370,623,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.54 | $370,623,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.54 | $370,623,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.54 | $370,623,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.27 | $337,706,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.