AerSale Corp. (ASLE)
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$5.80+2.84%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ASLE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 24.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ASLE — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, AerSale Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the…
Why it matters: Expanding MRO capabilities is important for growth. Delays may show ongoing problems.
Supportive ifManagement gives a timeline update. MRO capacity expansion is on track for Q4 2026.
Worry ifManagement says there are more delays in MRO expansion plans.
Why it matters: Growth in Technical Operations revenue shows success in MRO capabilities. This is important for making more money.
Supportive ifTechnical Operations made more than $35 million in revenue in Q3.
Worry ifTechnical Operations revenue falls or stays under $33 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Successful aircraft sales increase cash flow. This improves financial results.
Supportive ifAt least one aircraft sale valued at $35 million or more is completed in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo significant aircraft sales are reported in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Monetizing its strong inventory is crucial for AerSale's financial health. Progress can boost cash flow.
Supportive ifNews of big sales or contracts that use current inventory.
Worry ifNo sales or contracts announced. This shows poor inventory management.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$123 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $371 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,821 loss on $10,000 · 38.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If revenue growth slows, it may signal a weakening demand for AerSale's services.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: News about MRO capacity can show how AerSale is growing.
Supportive ifNews of new MRO contracts or facility growth.
Worry ifNo news or delays in MRO capacity growth plans.
Why it matters: Growth in MRO revenue shows AerSale can expand its services and capacity.
Supportive ifMRO revenue in Q3 is over $35 million. This shows successful growth of capabilities.
Worry ifMRO revenue in Q3 is below $30 million. This suggests challenges in growing operations.
Why it matters: Growth in leasing and MRO services is key to offsetting recent revenue declines. Strong performance here would signal recovery.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue from leasing and MRO services grows year over year by at least 10%.
Worry ifQ3 revenue from leasing and MRO services declines or grows less than 5%.
Why it matters: High demand for AerSafe before the FAA deadline could increase revenue. It may also support management's plan.
Supportive ifSales of AerSafe products exceed $5 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifSales of AerSafe products fall below $2 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Sales of Flight Equipment are key for revenue recovery. Announcing sales would show a good change.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least $35 million in Flight Equipment sales in Q3.
Worry ifNo announcements of Flight Equipment sales in Q3.
Why it matters: Selling inventory is important for better cash flow. It also helps reduce losses.
Watch forSelling inventory could bring in over $10 million in Q3.
Also watch forSelling inventory could bring in less than $2 million in Q3.