AerSale Corp. (ASLE)
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$4.82-3.02%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ASLE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -17.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ASLE — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 5, 2026, AerSale Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2026. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18…
Why it matters: Shareholders approved moving the company from Delaware. The September filing may show whether that change took effect.
Watch forA company filing confirms that the move from Delaware is complete and names the new state.
Also watch forA company filing says the move is delayed, withdrawn, or has not taken effect.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA fell to $2.2 million in Q2 from $18.3 million a year earlier. A rise would show earnings are recovering.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is above $2.2 million, the Q2 2026 result.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is $2.2 million or less.
Why it matters: More leased aircraft can add steady lease income. The company set an August delivery date for its fifth freighter.
Supportive ifThe company confirms delivery of the fifth B757 freighter and reports it on lease.
Worry ifThe fifth freighter is not delivered or on lease by the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Cash from operations was negative $33.5 million in the first half. Less cash use would ease pressure on the company's $34.0 million of liquidity.
Worry ifThe Q3 report shows cash used in operations of $16.75 million or more, half the first-half cash use.
Less concerning ifThe Q3 report shows operations used less than $16.75 million in cash, or operations brought in cash.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$127 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $358 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,141 loss on $10,000 · 41.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.