Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ASCENT SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES INC (ASTI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.48-14.74%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ASTI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Company secures sufficient capital to fund operations and growth | A supporting condition in ASCENT SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES INC's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain access to capital markets and avoid liquidity issues. | Intact | Company fails to raise capital or faces liquidity crisis | Capital access maintained via ATM & private placement Jan 2026 private placement and active ATM agreement demonstrate successful capital raising. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, speculative growth business rather than a proven durable compounder, since it remains loss-making. The long-term thesis is still active but in a watch state, with recent performance below its industry cohort and momentum weakening.
The valuation model indicates ASTI is at a 23.21% premium to peers, while model confidence is low and the expectations gap is negative. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, but the evidence does not show that the premium is supported by consistent earnings.
Revenue rose from $15,624 in 2025-Q1 to $95,203 in 2026-Q2, supporting management’s stated goal of $25 million to $40 million in 2027 sales. Operating losses have improved only slightly, and the company remains loss-making; the near-term risk of another earnings miss is elevated, with an estimated miss probability of 0.85.
The multi-year case depends on revenue growth continuing toward management’s 2027 goal while operating losses narrow more meaningfully. A guidance cut or further earnings misses would weaken the case; rate cuts or steadier results and guidance from sector peers could improve the backdrop, though neither resolves ASTI’s execution risks.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ASTI’s growth progress is offset by persistent losses, weak recent performance, and high near-term risk. The thesis hinges on turning revenue momentum into better operating results. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
EPS loss narrows from -$0.74 in 2026 to less negative in 2027 |
| A primary condition in ASCENT SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES INC's published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss narrows toward -$0.50 in 2027. |
| Intact |
| EPS loss worsens beyond -$0.74 in 2026 or fails to improve in 2027 |
Diluted EPS: $-0.19 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS loss narrows toward -$0.50 in 2027. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026-0.19 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Company revenue grows to at least $12.5M in 2026 and $32.5M in 2027 | A primary condition in ASCENT SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES INC's published investment case. The stated target is >= $12.5M in 2026 and >= $32.5M in 2027. | Intact | revenue falls below $12.5M in 2026 or below $25M in 2027 | Revenue: $95,203 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $12.5M in 2026 and >= $32.5M in 2027. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 202695,203 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.50 → $-0.63 · observed estimates
$0.02B → $0.02B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.50 | $22,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.50 | $22,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.50 | $22,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.50 | $22,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.50 | $22,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.50 | $22,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.50 | $22,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.50 | $22,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.50 | $22,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.50 | $22,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.50 | $22,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.50 | $22,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.50 | $22,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.50 | $22,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.50 | $22,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.50 | $22,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.50 | $22,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.50 | $22,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.50 | $22,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.50 | $22,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.50 | $22,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.50 | $22,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.50 | $22,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.50 | $22,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.50 | $22,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.50 | $22,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.50 | $22,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.50 | $22,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.63 | $22,374,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.