ATLASCLEAR HOLDINGS INC (ATCH)
AMEXFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.14+1.74%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
AMEXFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ATCH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -50.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 18.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 69.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of —
ATCH — divestiture
Dated 2026-10-15
Entry into a Definitive Material Agreement. On October 14, 2026 (the “Signing Date”), AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a business combination agreement (the “Acquisition Agreement”) with Ark Financial Services, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Ark”), AC Ark Subco 1, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company (“Merger Sub”), AC Ark Subco 2, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company and a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company (“Merger Sub II”…
Why it matters: Fiscal 2026 revenue rose 85%, but the operating loss widened to $9.8 million. Narrower losses would show that growth is covering more costs.
Supportive ifA later report shows a smaller operating loss than in the same quarter last year. Revenue is higher.
Worry ifA later report shows a larger operating loss than in the same quarter last year, or revenue falls from a year ago.
Why it matters: Stock locate fees drove much of fiscal 2026 growth, rising from $0.3 million to $6.8 million. A sharp drop would weaken this growth line.
Worry ifA fiscal 2027 report shows stock locate revenue below the same quarter a year earlier. Or, a company update reports a clear drop from the $6.8 million fiscal 2026 base.
Less concerning ifReported fiscal 2027 stock locate revenue stays at or above the year-ago quarter's level. The company does not report a drop from the fiscal 2026 base.
Why it matters: FINRA approval is needed to close the deal for the remaining 75.1% of Ark. A delay or denial could block the planned combined platform.
Watch forA company filing reports FINRA approval. It says the remaining 75.1% of Ark has closed.
Also watch forFINRA denies approval, or the company says the deal ended or was delayed beyond its stated plan.
Why it matters: Up to $3.25 million of extra deal payments depend on Dawson James meeting revenue targets for 2026 and 2027. The results also test its role in the combined platform.
Watch forA filing reports Dawson James met its 2026 revenue target for the year ended December 31, 2026.
Also watch forA filing reports Dawson James missed its 2026 revenue target, or does not earn the related payment.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$192 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $660 loss on $10,000 · 6.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,247 loss on $10,000 · 62.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Six new clearing clients signed, but they added no meaningful fiscal 2026 revenue. Their conversion is a clear test of clearing growth.
Supportive ifFiscal 2027 results show revenue from the six new correspondent firms, with more firms completing onboarding.
Worry ifThe firms remain in onboarding, or fiscal 2027 results still show no meaningful revenue from them.