Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Avidbank Holdings, Inc. (AVBH)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$34.10-2.35%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.86 → 3.88 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AVBH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS reaches at least $2.80 in 2026 | A primary condition in Avidbank Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=2.80 USD per share. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $2.80 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.71 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2.80 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 20260.71 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regional banking investment with a growth and execution thesis, rather than a clear turnaround. The long-term thesis is intact, though progress is uneven across profitability measures and credit quality.
The valuation is slightly above peers, and its valuation score rose from 49.4 to 75.4 in the recent period. That suggests expectations have risen, although the evidence does not show a high level of fragile positioning or specify exactly what earnings assumptions are priced in.
Near term, loan and deposit balances have grown, and net income increased in Q3, but net interest margin declined. Deposit growth included a large temporary client deposit expected to leave in Q4, while the non-performing loan ratio rose even as quarterly net charge-offs remained zero.
The multi-year view hinges on continued loan and deposit growth translating into steadier profitability without further margin erosion or worsening credit quality. Near term, a guidance cut or Fed rate cuts would be risks; continued earnings strength at financial-sector peers could support sector momentum.
Over the next one to three years, AVBH’s thesis rests on turning balance-sheet growth into durable earnings while managing margin and credit pressures. Recent results are strong overall, but the evidence points to mixed execution and a valuation above peers. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Avidbank Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >=3.81 USD per share in FY27. |
| Under Pressure |
| EPS fails to grow to at least $3.81 in FY27 |
Diluted EPS: $0.71 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >=3.81 USD per share in FY27. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 20260.71 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue decline limited to no worse than -28% in next 12 months | A primary condition in Avidbank Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is revenue decline >= -28% YoY. | Intact | revenue declines more than 28% next 12 months | Revenue growth: 2,496.03% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: revenue decline >= -28% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 12, 20262,496.03381 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
P/E remains below peer median of 11.98 | The bank trades cheaply with a P/E below peers and solid free cash flow yield. | Intact | P/E rises above peer median without earnings improvement | P/E (TTM): 10.95x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202610.9467 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.81 → $3.88 · observed estimates
$0.13B → $0.13B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.81 | $129,797,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.81 | $129,797,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.81 | $129,797,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.81 | $129,797,666 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.81 | $129,797,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.81 | $128,931,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.81 | $128,931,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.85 | $128,913,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.85 | $128,913,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.86 | $128,180,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.86 | $128,180,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.86 | $128,180,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.86 | $128,180,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.86 | $128,180,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.86 | $128,180,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.86 | $128,180,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.86 | $128,180,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.86 | $128,180,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.86 | $128,180,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.86 | $128,180,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.86 | $128,180,332 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.87 | $128,566,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.87 | $128,566,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.84 | $128,102,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.84 | $128,102,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.84 | $128,102,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.84 | $128,102,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.84 | $128,102,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.84 | $128,102,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.84 | $128,102,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.86 | $128,477,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.86 | $128,477,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.86 | $128,477,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.86 | $128,477,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.86 | $128,477,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.86 | $128,477,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.86 | $128,477,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.86 | $128,477,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.86 | $128,477,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.86 | $128,477,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.86 | $128,477,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.86 | $128,477,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.86 | $128,477,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.86 | $128,477,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.86 | $128,477,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.86 | $128,477,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.86 | $128,477,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.86 | $128,477,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.86 | $128,477,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.86 | $128,477,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.86 | $128,477,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.86 | $128,477,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.86 | $128,477,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.86 | $128,477,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.86 | $128,477,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.86 | $128,477,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.89 | $129,344,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.89 | $130,169,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.89 | $130,169,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.89 | $130,169,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.89 | $130,169,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.89 | $130,169,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.88 | $130,868,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.88 | $130,868,750 | 4 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.