Avidbank Holdings, Inc. (AVBH)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$34.10-2.35%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AVBH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -45.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AVBH — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-08-27
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
Why it matters: Management said a large client deposit would leave in Q4. Its exit may cut cash balances and net interest income.
Worry ifQ4 deposits fall by about $290 million or more, and net interest income drops from Q3's $28.7 million.
Less concerning ifQ4 deposits stay near Q3 levels, or core deposits replace the departing balance. Net interest income stays near $28.7 million.
Why it matters: The share of loans past due or not being paid rose from 0.65% to 0.70% in Q3. A further rise would show more credit strain.
Worry ifThe non-performing loan ratio goes above 0.70% in the next reported quarter.
Less concerning ifThe ratio falls below 0.70% and net charge-offs remain at or near zero.
Why it matters: Loans grew 17% and deposits grew 27% year over year. Continued growth would support management's stated plan, apart from the temporary deposit.
Supportive ifQ4 loans and deposits both end above their September 30, 2026 balances. Management notes growth in core deposits.
Worry ifQ4 loans or core deposits fall below their September 30, 2026 balances. This excludes the known temporary deposit exit.
Why it matters: Q3 margin fell to 4.07%, partly due to temporary cash from the large deposit. A margin recovery would show less drag from that cash.
Supportive ifQ4 net interest margin rises above 4.07%, the Q3 level.
Worry ifQ4 net interest margin stays at or below 4.07%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$56 on $10,000 · ±0.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $172 loss on $10,000 · 1.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,324 loss on $10,000 · 13.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The nine-month loan loss provision reached $5.4 million, versus $2.3 million a year earlier. Lower costs would ease a growing burden.
Watch forThe next quarterly provision for credit losses falls below $1.2 million, the Q3 level.
Also watch forThe next quarterly provision tops $1.2 million, or the non-performing loan ratio tops 0.70%.