Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-08-31 · fmp
Acuity Brands (AYI)
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$323.31-4.19%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
23.32 → 23.32 EPS · FY ending Aug 31, 2028 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AYI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Strong operating cash flow and capital allocation | Cash flow is strong, with $520M generated in nine months and active share buybacks. | Broken | Operating cash flow falls below $520M over next nine months | Cash from operations: $305.4M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Operating cash flow >= $520M over next nine months. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 23, 2026305,400,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-08-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AYI is an established industrial business with a growing Intelligent Spaces segment, rather than a pure growth story. Its multi-year view is intact, but execution is mixed: recent financial performance is strong, while progress on productivity has lagged.
The valuation evidence is mixed: AYI is described as cheap versus peers, but it also carries a 48% premium to peers. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding; the model has medium confidence, and the priced-in assessment finds low fragility.
Near-term results have been strong, with two recent earnings beats and a marked improvement in company momentum. Over the multi-year view, Intelligent Spaces growth is substantial, but ABL sales and adjusted operating profit declined in the latest full year, leaving productivity execution uncertain. Near-term miss risk is considered low, though the snapshot notes a history of a deep miss and a high-miss-rate industry.
A guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength from industrial bellwethers could support the sector backdrop. Misses or lower guidance from those companies could remove that support. Longer term, the thesis also depends on Intelligent Spaces growth continuing and productivity improving.
The 1-to-3-year view remains intact, with strong recent performance and a growing segment balanced by uneven productivity and a sector headwind. The evidence is medium-confidence, and the main swing factors are guidance, sector signals, and execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Operating profit growth and margin improvement |
| Profit improves with better cost control, shown by operating profit rising from $110M to $193M in a year. |
| Improving |
| Operating profit growth falls below 8% YoY next year |
Operating income: $250.7M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Operating profit increases at least 8% YoY. Target and observation units differ. Oct 23, 2026250,700,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of at least 5% per year | A primary condition in Acuity Brands's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 5% next year | Revenue growth: 2.92% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 23, 20262.919527 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$23.95 → $23.32 · observed estimates
$5.13B → $5.08B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | $23.95 | $5,132,931,526 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $23.95 | $5,132,931,526 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $23.95 | $5,132,931,526 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $23.95 | $5,132,931,526 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $23.95 | $5,132,931,526 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $23.95 | $5,132,931,526 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $23.95 | $5,132,931,526 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $23.95 | $5,132,931,526 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $23.95 | $5,132,931,526 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $23.95 | $5,132,931,526 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $23.95 | $5,132,931,526 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $23.95 | $5,132,931,526 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $23.95 | $5,132,931,526 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $23.95 | $5,132,931,526 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $23.95 | $5,132,931,526 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $23.95 | $5,132,931,526 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $23.95 | $5,132,931,526 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $23.95 | $5,132,931,526 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $23.95 | $5,132,931,526 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $23.95 | $5,132,931,526 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $23.95 | $5,132,931,526 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $23.95 | $5,132,931,526 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $23.95 | $5,132,931,526 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $23.95 | $5,132,931,526 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $23.95 | $5,132,931,526 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $23.95 | $5,132,931,526 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $23.95 | $5,132,931,526 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $23.95 | $5,132,931,526 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $23.59 | $5,096,264,859 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $23.57 | $5,092,398,192 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $23.57 | $5,089,911,704 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $23.39 | $5,084,226,204 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $23.38 | $5,084,226,204 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $23.32 | $5,055,151,445 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $23.32 | $5,055,151,445 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $23.32 | $5,055,151,445 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $23.32 | $5,055,151,445 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $23.32 | $5,055,151,445 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $23.32 | $5,055,151,445 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $23.32 | $5,055,151,445 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $23.32 | $5,055,151,445 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $23.32 | $5,055,151,445 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $23.32 | $5,055,151,445 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $23.32 | $5,055,151,445 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $23.32 | $5,055,151,445 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $23.32 | $5,055,151,445 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $23.32 | $5,055,151,445 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $23.32 | $5,055,151,445 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $23.32 | $5,055,151,445 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $23.30 | $5,055,508,773 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $23.30 | $5,055,508,773 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $23.30 | $5,055,508,773 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $23.30 | $5,055,508,773 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $23.30 | $5,055,508,773 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $23.30 | $5,055,508,773 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $23.30 | $5,055,508,773 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $23.30 | $5,055,508,773 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $23.32 | $5,078,308,773 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $23.32 | $5,078,308,773 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $23.32 | $5,078,308,773 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $23.32 | $5,078,308,773 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $23.32 | $5,078,308,773 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $23.32 | $5,078,308,773 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $23.32 | $5,078,308,773 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $23.32 | $5,078,308,773 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.