Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Boeing (BA)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$172.50-2.54%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.89 → 1.15 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Backlog grows to at least $680 billion by end 2025 | Boeing is growing revenue with a record backlog of $682 billion. | Improving | Backlog falls below $600 billion by 2025-Q4 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an execution recovery thesis in a cyclical industrial business, not a demonstrated durable compounder. The thesis remains in a watch state: third-quarter results improved from a year earlier, but management’s core operating and production priorities are still behind.
The valuation signal is cheap versus peers, while the priced-in assessment is tagged justified and fragility is low. Expectations appear restrained, with the model’s expectations gap negative, but the recent valuation measure rose and the evidence does not specify exactly what operating recovery the market assumes.
Near term, erratic earnings and recent misses create a meaningful risk of another weak print; a guidance cut would be a negative signal. Over the multi-year view, revenue and operating income improved year over year in the third quarter, and certification milestones were reported, but deliveries barely changed and durable operating progress remains unproven.
The main swing factor is whether BA stabilizes operations, advances safety and quality, and increases production and customer deliveries. Near-term sector signals also matter: continued strength from industrial bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis rests on turning modest financial improvement and certification progress into reliable execution and more substantive delivery growth. The evidence is mixed, and near-term earnings and guidance remain key checks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Net income improved to $8.22 billion in late 2025. |
| Broken |
| Net income remains negative or below $5 billion in 2025-Q4 |
Net income: $-116M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $8 billion. The stored target says 2025-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 27, 2026-116,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operations stabilize with no major IT outages disrupting production | A supporting condition in Boeing's published investment case. The stated target is No major IT outages in next 4 quarters. | Improving | Major IT outages disrupt production more than twice in next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to at least $89.5 billion in FY 2026 | A primary condition in Boeing's published investment case. The stated target is >= $89.5 billion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $80 billion in FY 2026 | Revenue: $24.188B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $89.5 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 27, 202624,188,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.10 → $1.15 · observed estimates
$112.02B → $109.23B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.10 | $112,023,636,250 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.10 | $112,023,636,250 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.10 | $112,023,636,250 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.09 | $112,023,636,250 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.09 | $112,023,636,250 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.18 | $112,025,356,250 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.18 | $112,025,356,250 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.18 | $112,548,405,440 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.02 | $112,398,837,060 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.00 | $112,334,950,543 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.14 | $112,548,390,050 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.14 | $112,548,390,050 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.20 | $112,744,443,900 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.20 | $112,744,443,900 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.00 | $112,672,831,405 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.13 | $112,830,045,460 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.13 | $112,830,045,460 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.13 | $112,830,045,460 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.00 | $112,672,831,405 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.13 | $112,830,045,460 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.13 | $112,830,045,460 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.00 | $112,672,831,405 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.00 | $112,672,831,405 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.00 | $112,672,831,405 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.00 | $112,672,831,405 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.00 | $112,672,831,405 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.00 | $112,672,831,405 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.00 | $112,672,831,405 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.03 | $112,681,708,328 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.03 | $112,681,708,328 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.03 | $112,681,708,328 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.03 | $112,681,708,328 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.03 | $112,681,707,577 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.03 | $112,681,707,577 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.03 | $112,681,707,577 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.03 | $112,681,707,577 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.03 | $112,681,707,577 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.03 | $112,681,707,577 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.03 | $112,681,707,577 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.03 | $112,681,707,577 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.03 | $112,681,707,577 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.03 | $112,681,707,577 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.03 | $112,681,716,020 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.03 | $112,681,716,020 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.03 | $112,681,716,020 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.03 | $112,681,716,020 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.03 | $112,681,716,020 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.03 | $112,681,707,578 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.03 | $112,681,707,578 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.99 | $112,681,707,578 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.99 | $112,681,707,578 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.99 | $112,681,707,578 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.99 | $112,681,707,578 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.99 | $112,681,708,328 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.99 | $112,681,708,328 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.99 | $112,681,708,328 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.99 | $112,681,708,328 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.99 | $112,681,708,328 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.99 | $112,681,708,328 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.99 | $112,681,708,328 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.95 | $112,702,100,636 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.95 | $112,702,100,636 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.95 | $112,702,100,636 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.95 | $112,702,100,636 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.95 | $112,702,100,636 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.95 | $112,702,100,636 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.95 | $112,702,092,193 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.90 | $112,683,680,919 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.91 | $112,683,663,496 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.90 | $112,683,678,881 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.89 | $112,483,434,737 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.89 | $112,483,452,160 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.89 | $112,483,452,160 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.89 | $112,483,452,161 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.88 | $112,393,913,699 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.80 | $112,203,037,526 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.70 | $112,069,463,880 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.70 | $112,069,451,577 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.69 | $112,069,443,885 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.66 | $112,151,905,423 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.66 | $112,151,905,423 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.62 | $111,991,140,923 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.62 | $111,991,140,923 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.62 | $111,991,140,173 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.61 | $111,995,424,788 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.61 | $111,995,424,788 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.61 | $111,995,348,616 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.61 | $111,995,348,616 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.61 | $111,995,348,616 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.59 | $111,902,631,036 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.57 | $111,906,745,670 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.56 | $111,850,789,744 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.56 | $111,850,887,361 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.56 | $111,850,887,361 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.56 | $111,850,887,361 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.56 | $111,850,887,361 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.73 | $111,104,543,577 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.61 | $109,575,306,748 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.48 | $109,260,777,472 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.42 | $109,328,586,373 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.42 | $109,328,586,373 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.42 | $109,328,586,373 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.38 | $109,307,146,373 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.15 | $109,234,719,801 | 13 / 20 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 25 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 16 recorded
0 raises · 6 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.