Bank of America (BAC)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
$49.76-3.62%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BAC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 7.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BAC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-14
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On October 14, 2026 , Bank of America Corporation (the “Corporation”) announced financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, reporting third quarter net income of $6.9 billion, or $0.91 per diluted share. A copy of the press release announcing the Corporation’s results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026 (the “Press Release”) is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference in this
Why it matters: Average loans rose 6% year over year, and this was the 10th straight quarter of sequential growth. A reversal would weaken a key growth source.
Supportive ifNext-quarter average loans exceed $1.23 trillion and rise year over year.
Worry ifNext-quarter average loans fall below $1.23 trillion or decline year over year.
Why it matters: Card and debit spending rose 8% in Q3. Lower U.S. retail sales would raise a question about whether consumer activity is slowing.
Watch forThe November 17 retail sales report shows higher sales than the prior month.
Also watch forThe November 17 retail sales report shows lower sales than the prior month.
Why it matters: The bank returned $8.3 billion in Q3 through dividends and share repurchases. Continued payouts would support its stated capital return focus.
Supportive ifThe next quarterly report shows at least $8.0 billion returned through dividends and common stock buybacks.
Worry ifThe next quarterly report shows less than $8.0 billion returned, or says buybacks were paused.
Why it matters: Net interest income rose 8% in Q3, helped by loan growth and fixed-rate asset repricing. More growth would support the bank’s revenue trend.
Supportive ifQ4 net interest income is above $16.4 billion, the Q3 level, and rises year over year.
Worry ifQ4 net interest income falls below $16.4 billion or declines year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$65 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $257 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,351 loss on $10,000 · 23.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.