Bank of America (BAC)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
$62.68-0.57%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BAC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 5.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers
BAC — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-24
Other Events. On July 24, 2026, Bank of America Corporation (the “Corporation”) issued a press release (“Press Release”) announcing that the Corporation’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend on the Corporation’s common stock of $0.32 per share, up $0.04 per share from the prior quarter, an increase of 14%. A copy of the Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference into this
Why it matters: An increase shows Bank of America wants to give money back to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend declared above $0.32 per share.
Worry ifDividend remains at $0.32 per share or decreases.
Why it matters: The FOMC meeting may change interest rates. This affects Bank of America's net interest income.
Watch forInterest rates stay the same or go down. This helps increase net interest income.
Also watch forInterest rates go up a lot. This hurts net interest income.
Why it matters: Strong capital returns show good financial health and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifShareholder returns are more than $9.3 billion.
Worry ifShareholder returns are less than $9.3 billion.
Why it matters: Changes in capital levels can impact how much money goes back to shareholders.
Worry ifCommon equity tier 1 (CET1) capital is over $200 billion.
Less concerning ifIf CET1 capital falls below $200 billion, regulators will be worried.
Why it matters: Exceeding $9.5 billion would show continued strong growth in net income and EPS.
Supportive ifQ3 net income reported above $9.5 billion.
Worry ifQ3 net income reported below $9.0 billion.
Why it matters: Strong capital levels help keep dividends and buybacks going. This shows financial health.
Worry ifCET1 ratio is over 11.2% before the dividend payment on September 25, 2026.
Less concerning ifCET1 ratio drops below 11.2% before the dividend payment.
Why it matters: More digital banking users mean more money for technology. It also shows customers care more.
Supportive ifDigital banking users grow to over 52 million by the end of Q3.
Worry ifDigital banking users decline or grow less than 1% by the end of Q3.
Why it matters: Strong dividend growth shows good financial health. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend increase of more than 10% announced in Q3 2026.
Worry ifDividend increase of less than 10% announced in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A rise in return on assets means better profit from assets. This shows management cares about profits.
Supportive ifReturn on average assets is over 1.0%. This shows better efficiency.
Worry ifReturn on average assets is under 1.0%. This means there are inefficiencies.
Why it matters: More dividends mean strong returns and a promise to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board announces another increase in the common stock dividend beyond $0.32 per share.
Worry ifThe Board maintains the dividend at $0.32 per share without increases.
Why it matters: A new dividend increase shows strong earnings. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifA press release announces a dividend increase above 14% in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo dividend increase is announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: High growth in investment banking fees shows strong market activity. This boosts overall revenue.
Supportive ifInvestment banking fees grow more than 30% year over year.
Worry ifInvestment banking fees grow less than 30% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in net charge-offs show how healthy the loan portfolio is. They also show consumer credit quality.
Worry ifNet charge-offs increase above $1.5 billion in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs remain below $1.2 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: More credit losses may mean lower asset quality. This raises risk in the loan portfolio.
Worry ifProvision for credit losses is over $1.5 billion.
Less concerning ifProvision for credit losses is under $1.5 billion.
Why it matters: The dividend payment shows that Bank of America wants to give money back to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend payment of $0.32 per share is made as scheduled.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is late or smaller.
Why it matters: Higher capital returns show strong financial health. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifShareholders will get back more than $10 billion in 2026.
Worry ifTotal capital returns to shareholders are $10 billion or less in 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$79 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $232 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,792 loss on $10,000 · 17.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.