Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Bank of America (BAC)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
$49.76-3.62%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.24 → 5.12 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BAC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Enhance digital banking through partnerships and AI | Digital banking deals and AI use support future growth. | Intact | No progress or setbacks in digital banking initiatives | Qualitative progress confirmed vs target BAC entered new states for tokenization and facilitated a major $2.4B debt sale, reinforcing digital banking capabilities. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BAC is a large financial business with a multi-year thesis tied to earnings growth, digital banking, and capital returns. The thesis is intact, but the recent earnings miss makes the near-term setup more cautious.
The valuation evidence points to BAC being cheap versus peers, while the priced-in tag says expectations are justified and fragility is low. Confidence in the valuation model is medium, and the evidence does not show that expectations are unusually stretched.
Net income and diluted EPS grew from 2025-Q2 to 2026-Q2, and management remains on track with its earnings and capital-return priorities. Digital banking remains a watch item, while the latest earnings miss and a 23-point drop in company momentum raise near-term execution risk.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, and Fed rate cuts from the current level could weigh on the sector. Continued strong earnings and higher guidance from sector peers could support momentum, while BAC’s own results will show whether its recent miss is temporary or signals weaker execution.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on continued earnings progress and capital returns, balanced against near-term uncertainty after the earnings miss. The evidence still describes the thesis as intact, with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Bank of America grew earnings per share 25% year over year. |
| Under Pressure |
| EPS or net income falls below prior year Q1 levels |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage risks from economic conditions | A supporting condition in Bank of America's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain stable earnings despite economic challenges. | Under Pressure | Significant earnings decline due to macroeconomic downturn | Q3 EPS $0.91 vs stable target Q3 EPS $0.91; BofA warns of AI bubble macro risks; AML settlement threats. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue near $30.3 billion in 2026 | The company aims for revenue near $30.3 billion in 2026. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $30 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $29.958B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Revenue >= $30.3 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 202629,958,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.25 → $5.12 · observed estimates
$129.64B → $130.57B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.25 | $129,641,754,820 | 19 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.25 | $129,641,754,820 | 19 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.25 | $129,641,754,820 | 19 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.25 | $129,641,754,820 | 19 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.25 | $129,641,754,820 | 19 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.26 | $130,220,732,530 | 19 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.26 | $130,220,732,530 | 19 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.27 | $130,304,915,860 | 19 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.24 | $130,220,537,347 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.27 | $130,304,915,860 | 19 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.27 | $130,304,915,860 | 19 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.27 | $130,304,915,860 | 19 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.28 | $130,521,276,850 | 19 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.28 | $130,521,276,850 | 19 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.24 | $130,220,537,347 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.29 | $130,529,503,780 | 19 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.29 | $130,529,503,780 | 19 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.29 | $130,529,503,780 | 19 / 12 |
| 2026-08-11 | $5.24 | $130,220,537,347 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.29 | $130,529,503,780 | 19 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.29 | $130,529,503,780 | 19 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.24 | $130,220,537,347 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.24 | $130,220,537,347 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.24 | $130,220,537,347 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.24 | $130,220,537,347 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.24 | $130,220,537,347 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.24 | $130,220,537,347 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.24 | $130,220,537,347 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.26 | $130,502,080,420 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.26 | $130,502,080,420 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.26 | $130,502,080,420 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.26 | $130,502,080,420 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.26 | $130,502,080,420 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.26 | $130,502,080,420 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.26 | $130,502,080,420 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.26 | $130,502,080,420 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.26 | $130,502,080,420 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.26 | $130,502,080,420 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.26 | $130,502,080,420 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.26 | $130,502,080,420 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.26 | $130,502,080,420 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.26 | $130,502,080,420 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.26 | $130,469,475,157 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.26 | $130,469,475,157 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.26 | $130,469,475,157 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.26 | $130,469,475,157 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.26 | $130,469,475,157 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.26 | $130,533,478,063 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.25 | $130,520,451,973 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.26 | $130,520,451,973 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.26 | $130,520,451,973 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.26 | $130,520,451,973 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.26 | $130,520,451,973 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.26 | $130,520,451,973 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.26 | $130,500,866,611 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.26 | $130,505,150,032 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.26 | $130,505,150,032 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.26 | $130,505,150,032 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.26 | $130,505,150,032 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.26 | $130,505,150,032 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.26 | $130,505,150,032 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.26 | $130,505,150,032 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.26 | $130,527,794,257 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.26 | $130,555,610,047 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.26 | $130,566,115,416 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.26 | $130,566,115,416 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.26 | $130,566,115,416 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.26 | $130,552,019,811 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.25 | $130,459,493,495 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.25 | $130,457,170,585 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.24 | $130,519,560,554 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.24 | $130,485,901,068 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.24 | $130,485,901,068 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.24 | $130,485,901,068 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.24 | $130,563,616,384 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.22 | $130,510,944,645 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.22 | $130,510,944,645 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.21 | $130,495,249,917 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.21 | $130,495,249,917 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.21 | $130,495,249,917 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.21 | $130,495,249,917 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.21 | $130,495,249,917 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.21 | $130,495,251,781 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.19 | $130,512,428,398 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.16 | $130,491,419,353 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.16 | $130,491,419,353 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.15 | $130,483,276,496 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.15 | $130,483,276,496 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.14 | $130,483,276,496 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.12 | $130,487,114,334 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.12 | $130,487,114,334 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.13 | $130,569,123,819 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.13 | $130,569,131,884 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.13 | $130,569,131,884 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.13 | $130,569,131,884 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.13 | $130,569,131,884 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.13 | $130,569,131,884 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.13 | $130,569,131,884 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.13 | $130,569,131,884 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.12 | $130,518,614,799 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.12 | $130,518,614,799 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.12 | $130,518,614,799 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.12 | $130,518,614,259 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.12 | $130,570,355,434 | 14 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 22 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 12 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.