Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc (BAER)
NASDAQIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.20-26.62%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BAER yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $55M-$60M in 2026 | Profit targets are $55M-$60M adjusted EBITDA. | Intact | adjusted EBITDA falls below $40M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 16, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth and execution story, not yet a proven durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: revenue and deployment activity have improved, but earnings remain loss-making and recent performance trails its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence describes BAER as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative; the model has low confidence. The priced-in signal is tagged justified, with low fragility, but that does not remove the business and listing-related risks.
Near term, revenue is seasonal and the elevated risk of an earnings miss reflects the company’s smaller size and recent misses. Q2 comparable revenue increased, gross profit improved from Q1, and guidance was reaffirmed, but the supplied evidence does not establish full-year delivery. Diversification has a concrete new agreement, though its expected revenue is spread over an assumed ten-year period and has not yet been reported as realized.
The multi-year view hinges on meeting 2026 revenue guidance, expanding revenue beyond wildfire suppression, and turning fleet readiness into sustained profitable work. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback, while results and guidance from industrial bellwethers could either support or weaken the sector backdrop. The recent delisting-rule notice adds a material uncertainty, but the evidence does not explain its basis or resolution.
BAER shows operating progress, but persistent losses, high near-term execution risk, weaker momentum, and the listing notice leave the 1-to-3-year thesis uncertain. The evidence supports close attention to guidance, realized diversification revenue, and resolution of the listing issue. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| New aircraft should help grow revenue and cash flow. |
| Under Pressure |
| no revenue growth from new aircraft in FY26 |
Q1 & Q2 FY26 earnings misses vs growth target Q1/Q2 FY26 earnings misses, Nasdaq delisting notice, and negative news flow confirm stalled recovery. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve 2026 revenue of $135M-$145M | A primary condition in Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is ~$140M revenue. | Intact | revenue falls below $105M in FY26 | Revenue: $30.494M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$140M revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202630,494,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.07 → $-0.26 · observed estimates
$0.16B → $0.16B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.07 | $156,438,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.07 | $156,438,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.07 | $156,438,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.07 | $156,438,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.07 | $156,438,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.07 | $156,438,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.07 | $156,438,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.07 | $156,438,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.07 | $156,438,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.07 | $156,438,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.07 | $156,438,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.07 | $156,438,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.07 | $156,438,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.07 | $156,438,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.07 | $156,438,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.07 | $156,438,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.07 | $156,438,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.07 | $156,438,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.09 | $155,674,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.16 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.16 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.07 | $156,438,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.07 | $156,438,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.07 | $156,438,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.07 | $156,438,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.07 | $156,438,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.07 | $156,438,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.07 | $156,438,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.26 | $156,624,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.