Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc (BAER)
NASDAQIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.20-26.62%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BAER
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -88.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 30.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 118.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers
BAER — legal / regulatory event — Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standar…
Dated 2026-10-30
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. On October 28, 2026, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) received a deficiency letter (the “Letter”) from the Nasdaq Listing Qualifications Department (the “Staff”) of the Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (“Nasdaq”) notifying the Company that, based upon the closing bid price of the Company’s common stock, $0.0001 par value per share (the “Common Stock”), for the 30 consecutive busin…
Why it matters: Nasdaq flagged the stock after 30 straight business days below its $1 minimum. The company has until April 26, 2027, to regain compliance.
Worry ifNasdaq confirms BAER closed at or above $1 for at least 10 straight business days by April 26, 2027.
Less concerning ifBAER does not meet Nasdaq’s $1 closing-price rule by April 26, 2027, and Nasdaq starts delisting steps.
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted EBITDA fell to $8.1 million from $10.8 million a year earlier. Full-year results will test the $55 million floor.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA is reported at $55 million or more. This is within the stated $55 million to $60 million range.
Worry ifFull-year adjusted EBITDA is below $55 million. Or Bridger lowers the range before year-end.
Why it matters: Bridger kept its $135 million to $145 million revenue range after Q2. The next results show whether it reached that range.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 revenue is reported at $135 million or more, within the stated $135 million to $145 million range.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 revenue is reported below $135 million. Or Bridger cuts its revenue range before year-end.
Why it matters: Service entry would show progress on Bridger’s new work beyond wildfire response. The first plane still needs changes and approval.
Supportive ifBridger reports that the first modified BT-67 has passed required checks and entered service in 2027.
Worry ifThe first BT-67 misses its 2027 service date, or Bridger reports that changes or approvals are delayed.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$314 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $800 loss on $10,000 · 8.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,152 loss on $10,000 · 91.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The $58 million Texas contract runs over three years. On-time delivery would show Bridger can complete this large aircraft program.
Supportive ifTexas A&M Forest Service confirms all three King Air 360 aircraft arrived on the contract schedule.
Worry ifA delivery is delayed, or the contract is changed or ended before all three aircraft arrive.