Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc (BAER)
NASDAQIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.12+2.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BAER
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -69.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 25.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 95.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BAER — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as ame…
Why it matters: New contracts would support Bridger's plan. They would help revenue grow as fire season comes.
Supportive ifNew contracts for wildfire management services were announced. They are worth over $10 million.
Worry ifNo new contracts were announced in the next quarter. This shows trouble in getting business.
Why it matters: An improvement would show better operations. This comes after the recent earnings miss.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings show a smaller loss or a profit compared to Q1.
Worry ifQ2 earnings show a larger loss than Q1.
Why it matters: The CEO change may affect company strategy and performance. Recovery signs are important to watch.
Supportive ifPositive news or changes from new leaders show a recovery plan.
Worry ifOngoing poor performance or no clear direction after the CEO change.
Why it matters: Updates will show if the company is using its aircraft well to grow revenue in 2026.
Watch forManagement announces a new contract or partnership. They will use aircraft to make money.
Also watch forNo updates or contracts were announced. This shows a lack of progress with aircraft.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$247 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $695 loss on $10,000 · 6.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,758 loss on $10,000 · 67.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher usage rates can help revenue grow. This matches management's goal for 2026.
Supportive ifAircraft usage rates went up compared to Q1.
Worry ifAircraft usage rates stayed the same or went down compared to Q1.
Why it matters: New contracts can signal growth and increased demand for Bridger's services.
Supportive ifBridger announces new contracts worth over $30 million in Q3.
Worry ifNo new contracts were announced. This may show weak demand.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector's revenue growth picks up, it may boost Bridger's performance. This could improve its financial health.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up to over 5% each year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth keeps slowing down to below 5% each year.
Why it matters: Knowing revenue guidance helps us see how Bridger will grow this year.
Supportive ifManagement says Q3 revenue guidance is between $135 million and $145 million.
Worry ifManagement revises Q3 revenue guidance down from the current range.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how revenue and EBITDA are doing.
Watch forThe earnings report shows revenue and EBITDA are at or above the guidance.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows big misses in revenue and EBITDA goals.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target would show recovery from Q1's dip. It would also help with full-year plans.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at or above $30 million.
Worry ifQ2 revenue is below $25 million. This shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: New contracts would confirm demand for Bridger's services and support revenue growth.
Supportive ifContracts announced that extend aircraft use into Q4 show demand.
Worry ifNo new contracts were announced. This may show weak demand for firefighting services.
Why it matters: This would indicate progress toward the full-year revenue goal of $135 million to $145 million.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue was over $35 million. This shows strong demand and good execution.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was under $30 million. This shows challenges in meeting yearly goals.
Why it matters: This shows better profits. It matches the full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA was over $15 million for Q3. This shows good efficiency.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was under $10 million for Q3. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: Updates on this contract could show growth in Bridger's skills and revenue.
Watch forThey announced successful delivery of the King Air 360 aircraft for Texas A&M.
Also watch forA delay or cancellation of the Texas A&M contract shows setbacks.