Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH)
NYSEIndustrialsConsulting ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$89.32+1.16%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConsulting ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.73 → 6.77 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BAH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted diluted EPS of $6.00 - $6.35 for fiscal year 2027 | Adjusted EPS is targeted at $6.00 to $6.35, maintaining earnings growth. | Intact | adjusted EPS falls below $6.00 in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BAH is a government-services and technology business with a demand-supported but execution-sensitive long-term thesis. Its thesis state is intact, while earnings quality is fragile, management execution is volatile, and overall risk is elevated.
The evidence describes BAH as cheap versus peers, and the expectations gap is slightly negative, meaning expectations are not especially demanding. Valuation-model confidence is low, and the priced-in assessment is tagged justified rather than showing unusually concentrated fragility.
In the near term, results are mixed: revenue declined across the reported quarters, though management narrowed fiscal 2027 revenue guidance and the latest event was an earnings beat. For the multi-year view, backlog growth and book-to-bill of 1.5x in both reported quarters support demand, but evidence that cyber and defense technology products are scaling remains limited.
The thesis depends on delivering the fiscal 2027 outlook and turning stated investment priorities into clear results. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued strength or weakness among sector bellwethers EFX, FCN, and HURN could also affect the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BAH has demand support from its growing backlog, but revenue execution, fragile earnings quality, and a sector headwind leave the thesis exposed to setbacks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow is expected between $825 million and $925 million, showing strong cash generation. |
| Intact |
| free cash flow falls below $825 million in FY27 |
Free cash flow: $263M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: between $825M and $925M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 23, 2026263,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue of $11.2 - $11.7 billion for fiscal year 2027 | Booz Allen Hamilton aims to stabilize revenue near $11.45 billion in fiscal 2027. | Intact | revenue falls below $11.2 billion in FY27 | Revenue: $2.778B FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: between $11.2B and $11.7B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 23, 20262,778,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete $720 million acquisition and integrate Ultra I&C Mission Solutions | The $720 million acquisition of Ultra I&C Mission Solutions should boost defense tech revenue with strong double-digit growth. | Intact | acquisition fails to close or integration delays beyond FY27 Q2 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in a supplied disclosure. Management reported: “ultraclosepressreleasevf Booz Allen Completes Acquisition of Ultra I&C Mission Solutions Business McLean, VA, August 24, 2026, Booz Allen Hamilton (NYSE: BAH) has completed its previously announced $720 million acquisition of the Ultra I&C Mission Solutions business (Ultra Mission Solutions), further strengthening its technology solutions for national security missions.” “Booz Allen expects revenue from this acquisition to grow at a strong double-digit rate for the next several years with EBITDA margins well above 20%.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.85 → $6.77 · observed estimates
$11.87B → $11.90B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.85 | $11,866,926,600 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.81 | $11,861,182,710 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.81 | $11,861,182,710 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.77 | $11,875,668,210 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.77 | $11,875,668,210 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.73 | $11,863,950,790 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.73 | $11,863,950,790 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.71 | $11,852,619,550 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.71 | $11,852,579,410 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.71 | $11,852,619,550 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.71 | $11,852,619,550 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.71 | $11,852,619,550 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.71 | $11,852,619,550 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.71 | $11,852,579,410 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.71 | $11,852,579,410 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.71 | $11,852,619,550 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.71 | $11,852,619,550 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.71 | $11,852,619,550 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-11 | $6.71 | $11,852,619,550 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.72 | $11,860,619,550 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.72 | $11,860,619,550 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.71 | $11,852,579,410 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.71 | $11,852,579,410 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.71 | $11,852,579,410 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.71 | $11,852,579,410 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.71 | $11,852,579,410 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.71 | $11,852,579,410 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.71 | $11,852,579,410 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.72 | $11,860,602,519 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.72 | $11,860,602,519 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.72 | $11,860,602,519 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.72 | $11,860,602,519 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.72 | $11,860,602,519 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.73 | $11,872,602,885 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.73 | $11,872,602,885 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.73 | $11,872,602,885 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.73 | $11,872,602,885 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.73 | $11,872,602,885 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.73 | $11,872,602,885 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.73 | $11,872,602,885 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.72 | $11,875,402,663 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.72 | $11,875,402,663 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.72 | $11,875,402,663 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.72 | $11,875,402,663 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.72 | $11,875,402,663 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.72 | $11,875,402,663 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.72 | $11,875,402,663 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.72 | $11,875,402,663 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.72 | $11,875,402,663 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.72 | $11,875,402,663 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.72 | $11,875,402,663 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.72 | $11,875,426,340 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.72 | $11,875,426,340 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.72 | $11,875,426,340 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.72 | $11,875,426,340 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.72 | $11,875,426,340 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.72 | $11,875,426,340 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.72 | $11,875,426,340 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.74 | $11,898,440,134 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.74 | $11,898,440,134 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.74 | $11,898,440,134 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.74 | $11,898,440,134 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.74 | $11,898,440,134 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.74 | $11,898,440,134 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.74 | $11,898,440,134 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.74 | $11,898,440,134 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.74 | $11,898,440,134 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.73 | $11,908,593,516 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.73 | $11,908,593,516 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.73 | $11,908,593,516 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.73 | $11,908,593,516 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.73 | $11,908,593,516 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.73 | $11,908,593,516 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.73 | $11,908,593,516 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.73 | $11,926,307,801 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.73 | $11,926,307,801 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.73 | $11,937,450,659 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.74 | $11,947,313,210 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.74 | $11,947,313,210 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.74 | $11,947,313,210 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.74 | $11,947,313,210 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.73 | $11,955,130,353 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.73 | $11,955,130,353 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.73 | $11,955,130,353 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.73 | $11,955,130,353 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.73 | $11,955,130,353 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.73 | $11,955,162,446 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.73 | $11,955,162,446 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.73 | $11,955,162,446 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.72 | $11,952,091,017 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.72 | $11,952,091,017 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.72 | $11,952,091,017 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.74 | $11,919,322,653 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.74 | $11,919,322,653 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.75 | $11,907,845,891 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.75 | $11,907,845,891 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.75 | $11,894,735,619 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.75 | $11,894,735,619 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.75 | $11,894,735,619 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.77 | $11,901,645,306 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.77 | $11,901,643,706 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.77 | $11,901,643,706 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.77 | $11,901,643,706 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.77 | $11,901,643,706 | 11 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.