Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH)
NYSEIndustrialsConsulting ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$72.80-1.46%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConsulting ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BAH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -15.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 4.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
BAH — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-04
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 4, 2026, Booz Allen Hamilton Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”) and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation, a Delaware corporation (the “Parent Guarantor”), issued $700,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 5.375% Senior Notes due 2030 (the “2030 Notes”) and $500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 5.900% Senior Notes due 2034 (the “2034 Notes”, and together with the 2030 Notes, the “Notes”…
Why it matters: Stabilizing revenue is crucial for meeting the fiscal year target of $11.2 - $11.7 billion.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue shows growth or stays above $2.8 billion compared to last year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue drops more compared to last year. It worsens from the 4.2% drop.
Why it matters: Management expects revenue of $11.2 to $11.7 billion. Confirmation would show recovery and a focus on growth.
Supportive ifManagement will confirm revenue guidance in the earnings call on July 24, 2026.
Worry ifManagement lowers revenue guidance from the $11.2 to $11.7 billion range.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is vital for funding growth and returning value to shareholders.
Supportive ifFree cash flow for fiscal 2027 is reported between $825 million and $925 million.
Worry ifFree cash flow for fiscal 2027 falls below $825 million.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is important for funding growth and meeting the target of $825 - $925 million for the year.
Supportive ifFree cash flow in Q1 2027 is $200 million or more.
Worry ifFree cash flow in Q1 2027 is below $200 million.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$147 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $456 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,212 loss on $10,000 · 42.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Meeting the revenue target signals strong demand and execution in a tough market.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reaches at least $2.8 billion, aligning with fiscal 2027 guidance of $11.2 to $11.7 billion.
Worry ifQ2 revenue is below $2.8 billion. This shows ongoing challenges in the market.
Why it matters: This acquisition helps Booz Allen grow its defense technology and make more money.
Supportive ifThe acquisition is done. Booz Allen will add Ultra Mission Solutions to its work.
Worry ifThe acquisition faces delays or fails to close.
Why it matters: This acquisition is important for Booz Allen's defense technology. If it goes well, revenue could grow and margins could improve.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close in Q2 FY27. Strong double-digit revenue growth is expected.
Worry ifThe acquisition fails to close or faces significant delays beyond Q2 FY27.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow helps with capital use and growth plans.
Supportive ifFree cash flow for Q2 is reported at or above $261 million.
Worry ifFree cash flow is below $261 million. This shows cash generation problems.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key to achieving the fiscal year target of $11.2 - $11.7 billion. Positive growth would signal recovery.
Supportive ifQ1 2027 revenue growth is 0% or better compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ1 2027 revenue growth is negative compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: EPS growth shows how profitable and efficient Booz Allen is.
Supportive ifAdjusted diluted EPS exceeds $1.81 in Q2 fiscal 2027.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS falls below $1.81 in Q2 fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Adjusted diluted EPS shows how well a company makes money. Hitting the target means strong performance.
Supportive ifAdjusted diluted EPS in Q1 2027 is $1.50 or higher.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS in Q1 2027 is below $1.50.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show revenue and profit trends. This is important for future performance.
Watch forThe earnings report on July 24, 2026, shows revenue growth and better profits.
Also watch forThe earnings report on July 24, 2026, shows falling revenue and low profits.
Why it matters: Hitting EPS guidance shows good cost management and profit.
Supportive ifAdjusted diluted EPS for fiscal 2027 lands between $6.00 and $6.35.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS for fiscal 2027 falls below $6.00.
Why it matters: Troy Lahr's experience could drive better financial results. His leadership is crucial for Booz Allen's strategy.
Watch forFinancial performance gets much better with Troy Lahr in charge.
Also watch forFinancial performance goes down or stays the same even with Lahr's appointment.
Why it matters: Better integration can boost Booz Allen's defense technology. This can help it make more money.
Supportive ifManagement is taking big steps to add Ultra Mission Solutions to its work.
Worry ifThere are issues with integration. This slows down product delivery and operational gains.