Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Boise Cascade (BCC)
NYSEIndustrialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$73.75-5.42%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.18 → 4.48 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BCC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.22 per share | Boise Cascade keeps paying a steady quarterly dividend of $0.22 per share. | Intact | Dividend cut below $0.22 per share | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BCC is a building-products distributor with a cyclical business setup, rather than a clearly durable compounder or a turnaround. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent performance in the top half of its industry, but confidence is medium because earnings quality is fragile.
The valuation is described as cheap, and it has fallen 11.6 points recently. The valuation model shows only a small expectations gap and a modest premium versus peers, with current pricing marked as justified rather than highly fragile.
Near-term results have been strong, including an earnings beat, while the latest evidence says performance remains in the top half of the industry. Management is maintaining capital expenditure guidance and continuing dividends and repurchases, but delivery on the new James Hardie partnership is not yet measurable in the supplied results. The sector is a headwind, and fragile earnings quality leaves some risk despite a low stated near-term miss probability.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, especially given the history of estimate reductions and a deep past miss. The sector signal from UFPI is another swing factor: continued earnings strength and higher guidance could support the industrial backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it. The multi-year view also depends on measurable progress expanding the James Hardie partnership.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BCC’s thesis rests on sustaining strong execution through a difficult sector backdrop while improving confidence in earnings quality. The valuation is cheap, but the partnership’s delivery and upcoming guidance remain important tests. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Boise Cascade's published investment case. The stated target is Net income >= $18 million per quarter. |
| Intact |
| Net income falls below $15 million per quarter over next 4 quarters |
Net income: $36.39M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Net income >= $18 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 2, 202636,390,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves from Q1 2026 level of $27.8 million | A primary condition in Boise Cascade's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income >= $40 million. | Intact | Operating income remains below $30 million over next 4 quarters | Operating income: $55.839M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $40 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 2, 202655,839,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of at least 5% next fiscal year | Lumber demand supports revenue growth near 5% next year. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 3% in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.46 → $4.48 · observed estimates
$6.86B → $6.88B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.46 | $6,857,900,280 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.46 | $6,857,900,280 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.46 | $6,857,900,280 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.46 | $6,857,900,280 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.46 | $6,857,900,280 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.46 | $6,857,900,280 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.37 | $6,860,471,713 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.46 | $6,857,900,280 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.46 | $6,857,900,280 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.46 | $6,860,471,710 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.46 | $6,860,471,710 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.46 | $6,860,401,280 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.30 | $6,793,163,140 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.30 | $6,793,163,140 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.16 | $6,853,294,810 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.42 | $6,878,866,240 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.42 | $6,878,866,240 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.42 | $6,878,866,240 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $5.29 | $6,874,994,810 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.29 | $6,874,994,810 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.29 | $6,874,994,810 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.16 | $6,853,294,810 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.16 | $6,853,294,810 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.16 | $6,853,294,810 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.16 | $6,853,294,810 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.16 | $6,853,294,810 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.16 | $6,853,294,810 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.16 | $6,853,294,810 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.18 | $6,874,937,953 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.06 | $6,873,764,096 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.06 | $6,873,764,096 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.05 | $6,876,334,735 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.05 | $6,876,334,735 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.05 | $6,876,334,735 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.05 | $6,876,334,735 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.05 | $6,876,334,735 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.05 | $6,876,334,735 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.05 | $6,876,334,735 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.05 | $6,876,334,735 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.05 | $6,876,334,735 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.05 | $6,876,334,735 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.05 | $6,876,334,735 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.05 | $6,876,334,735 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.05 | $6,876,334,735 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.97 | $6,866,063,306 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.97 | $6,866,063,306 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.97 | $6,866,063,306 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.97 | $6,866,063,306 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.97 | $6,866,063,306 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.97 | $6,866,063,306 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.97 | $6,866,063,306 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.48 | $6,878,552,735 | 5 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.