Boise Cascade (BCC)
NYSEIndustrialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$77.98+4.24%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BCC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BCC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 2, 2026, Boise Cascade Company ("Boise Cascade" or the "Company") issued a press release announcing its third quarter 2026 financial results, a copy of which is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Report on Form 8-K. Additionally, Exhibit 99.2, a copy of which is attached hereto, includes certain statistical information related to the Company's quarterly performance.
Why it matters: BMD sales grew 5% in Q2, but segment income fell 10%. A Q3 result below guidance would add pressure to the distribution business.
Worry ifQ3 BMD EBITDA is reported below $53 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 BMD EBITDA is reported at or above $53 million.
Why it matters: Boise Cascade became James Hardie's sole nationwide distributor on July 31. BMD results can show whether the deal adds sales as the product shift begins.
Supportive ifA filing or earnings report names James Hardie products and reports added sales or volume in BMD.
Worry ifA later report shows no added BMD sales or volume from the partnership. Or it reports a delay in the product shift.
Why it matters: Q2 LVL and I-joist prices fell year over year, and EWP sales fell 6% in BMD. Further declines could weigh on both segments.
Worry ifQ3 LVL or I-joist average selling prices fall further from a year ago, or BMD EWP sales fall more than 6% from a year ago.
Less concerning ifQ3 LVL and I-joist prices rise year over year, and BMD EWP sales are flat or higher year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$147 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $321 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,788 loss on $10,000 · 27.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.