Boise Cascade (BCC)
NYSEIndustrialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$79.21+2.71%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BCC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BCC — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-30
Regulation FD Disclosure. On July 30, 2026, Boise Cascade Company ("Boise Cascade" or the "Company") issued a press release announcing that its board of directors had declared a quarterly dividend of $0.23 per share to holders of its common stock, payable on September 16, 2026 to stockholders of record on September 1, 2026. The press release is furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference into this
Why it matters: An increase would show strong cash flow and a commitment to returning money to shareholders.
Supportive ifBoard declares a quarterly dividend higher than $0.23 per share.
Worry ifBoard maintains or reduces the quarterly dividend at $0.23 or lower.
Why it matters: This guidance will show how well the company is managing costs and demand. It reflects the company's ability to adapt to market conditions.
Watch forQ3 adjusted EBITDA reported within the guided range of $82M to $114M.
Also watch forQ3 adjusted EBITDA was outside the expected range.
Why it matters: Staying within the $150M to $170M range shows disciplined spending and growth focus.
Supportive if2026 spending plans are expected to be between $150M and $170M.
Worry ifSpending plans are expected to be outside the $150M to $170M range.
Why it matters: This guidance indicates how the company is managing costs and pricing in a tough market.
Watch forWood Products EBITDA guidance for Q3 2026 exceeds $57 million.
Also watch forWood Products EBITDA guidance for Q3 2026 falls below $42 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$178 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $331 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,788 loss on $10,000 · 27.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Guidance will show how management views demand and cost pressures in the market.
Watch forBMD EBITDA guidance for Q3 2026 exceeds $68 million.
Also watch forBMD EBITDA guidance for Q3 2026 falls below $53 million.
Why it matters: This partnership could boost sales and market reach, affecting overall revenue growth. It is a key strategic move for the company.
Supportive ifSales of James Hardie products rise a lot in the next quarters.
Worry ifSales from James Hardie products do not increase or decline.
Why it matters: Net income trends will show if the company can make more money in a tough market.
Worry ifNet income in Q3 2026 shows a year-over-year increase from Q2 2026's $57.3 million.
Less concerning ifNet income in Q3 2026 declines year-over-year from Q2 2026's $57.3 million.
Why it matters: Housing starts are a key driver for Boise Cascade's sales. Changes can impact revenue.
Worry ifU.S. single-family housing starts decrease more than 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifU.S. single-family housing starts increase year over year.
Why it matters: Single-family housing starts are a major driver of Boise Cascade's sales. A decline could signal weaker demand.
Worry ifSingle-family housing starts drop by more than 5% from last year.
Less concerning ifSingle-family housing starts stay the same or go up each year.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend may show shifts in financial health or spending plans.
Watch forThe board declares a dividend higher than $0.22 per share in future announcements.
Also watch forThe board cuts the dividend below $0.22 per share in future announcements.
Why it matters: More housing starts would show stronger demand for Boise Cascade's products.
Supportive ifTotal U.S. housing starts reported to increase year-over-year.
Worry ifTotal U.S. housing starts reported to decline year-over-year.
Why it matters: A lower adjusted EBITDA shows that demand and profit are still weak.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, adjusted EBITDA was below $83 million.
Less concerning ifIn Q2 2026, adjusted EBITDA was above $115 million.