Franklin Resources (BEN)
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$34.73+3.52%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BEN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -15.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 35 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BEN — officer change
Dated 2026-07-23
The company granted special retention equity awards and carried interest allocations to key executives.
Why it matters: Slower AUM growth might mean less demand. This can hurt future revenue.
Worry ifAUM growth reported below 7% in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifAUM growth remains at or above 7%.
Why it matters: More buybacks would show good use of capital and a focus on shareholders.
Supportive ifShare buybacks exceed $350 million for the quarter ending September 30, 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $200 million for the same quarter.
Why it matters: A steady or lower dividend may show financial trouble or changes in spending.
Worry ifDividend per share remains at $0.33 or lower in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifDividend per share goes above $0.33, showing good capital use.
Why it matters: AUM decline may show less investor confidence. This could hurt future revenue.
Worry ifTotal AUM reported below $1.79 trillion.
Less concerning ifTotal AUM increases above $1.8 trillion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$110 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $297 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,921 loss on $10,000 · 19.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Consistent earnings growth shows strong performance and investor trust.
Supportive ifEarnings growth over 10% year-over-year in the next report.
Worry ifEarnings growth below 10% year-over-year in the next report.
Why it matters: New news in the lawsuit may affect Franklin Templeton's image and work.
Worry ifThere are new updates or settlements in the Western Asset lawsuit.
Less concerning ifNo big updates or solutions in the lawsuit suggest things are stable.
Why it matters: A drop in adjusted EPS may show problems in making money.
Worry ifAdjusted earnings per share falls below $0.70 in the next earnings report.
Less concerning ifAdjusted earnings per share are above $0.70. This shows strong profits.
Why it matters: An increase in buybacks shows confidence in finances. It is a promise to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a buyback increase beyond 20.8 million shares.
Worry ifNo increase in buyback authorization or a cut in the current amount.
Why it matters: A drop in net inflows may show less demand for Franklin Templeton's products.
Worry ifLong-term net inflows reported below $15 billion in a future quarter.
Less concerning ifLong-term net inflows are over $15 billion. This shows strong demand.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show strong efforts to return capital and confidence in the company.
Supportive ifShare buybacks are above 2 million shares for Q2 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below 1 million shares for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher EPS growth means better cost control and efficiency. This helps investor feelings.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS growth exceeds 10% compared to the previous quarter.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS growth is below 5% compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: An increase shows a promise to return money to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend declared increases to more than $0.33 per share.
Worry ifDividend declared remains at or below $0.33 per share.
Why it matters: A declining margin means costs are rising. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifOperating margin for Q3 falls below 9%.
Less concerning ifOperating margin for Q3 is still above 10%.
Why it matters: Many people still want Franklin Templeton's investment products and strategies. This shows strong inflows.
Supportive ifLong-term net inflows reported for Q3 exceed $20 billion.
Worry ifLong-term net inflows fall below $15 billion for Q3.
Why it matters: An increase means management wants to give money back to shareholders. They want to stay financially healthy.
Supportive ifDividend per share increases from $0.33 in Q2.
Worry ifDividend remains at $0.33 or decreases.