Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$3.56 → $3.59 · observed estimates
Franklin Resources (BEN)
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$32.21-4.90%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.55 → 3.59 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BEN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividends at $0.33 per share | The company keeps dividends steady at $0.33 per share. | Intact | Dividends fall below $0.33 per share | Dividend per share: $0.33 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.33 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 31, 20260.33 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$3.56 → $3.59 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BEN is a large asset manager pursuing growth through a broad global platform and alternatives. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent performance strong, but execution is uneven because cost control and earnings quality remain concerns.
The evidence labels BEN expensive, while also showing it trades cheaply versus peers; that contrast makes the valuation picture less clear. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to expectations being unusually stretched despite the expensive rating.
Over the multi-year view, asset growth, long-term inflows, and expansion in alternatives and international assets support the growth case. Near term, expenses rose and operating margin fell in the latest quarter, despite a recent earnings beat and strong financial performance. A guidance cut is a meaningful risk, though the stated near-term miss risk is low.
The thesis depends on whether growth in the diversified platform and alternatives continues while expense discipline improves. Near term, a guidance cut or Fed rate cuts would weigh on the setup; continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers would support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, BEN has a credible growth path, but the thesis remains balanced by fragile earnings quality, margin pressure, and mixed valuation signals. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Earnings per share beat estimates by 29% last quarter. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $0.49 next quarter |
Diluted EPS: $0.31 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.49. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Jul 31, 20260.31 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to about $2.295 billion next quarter | Franklin Resources grows revenue about 9% year over year. | Intact | Revenue falls below $2.064 billion next quarter | Revenue: $2.358B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.295 billion. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Jul 31, 20262,358,400,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Progress on share buybacks with $67 million repurchased | Share buybacks are authorized to enhance shareholder value. | Intact | No meaningful share repurchases progress beyond $67 million | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$8.35B → $8.34B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $3.56 | $8,347,328,659 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.56 | $8,347,328,659 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.55 | $8,343,973,060 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.55 | $8,343,973,060 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.55 | $8,343,973,060 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.55 | $8,343,973,060 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.58 | $8,337,953,060 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.57 | $8,342,737,343 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.57 | $8,342,737,343 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.57 | $8,342,737,343 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.57 | $8,342,737,343 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.57 | $8,342,737,343 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.57 | $8,342,737,343 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.59 | $8,348,410,243 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.58 | $8,337,321,243 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.58 | $8,337,321,243 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.58 | $8,337,321,243 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.58 | $8,337,321,243 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.58 | $8,337,321,243 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.58 | $8,337,321,243 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.58 | $8,337,321,243 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.58 | $8,337,321,243 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.58 | $8,337,321,243 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.58 | $8,337,321,243 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.58 | $8,337,321,243 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.58 | $8,337,321,243 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.58 | $8,337,321,243 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.59 | $8,569,071,913 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.59 | $8,337,321,243 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.59 | $8,337,321,243 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.59 | $8,337,321,243 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.59 | $8,337,321,243 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.59 | $8,337,321,243 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.59 | $8,337,321,243 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.59 | $8,337,321,243 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.