Brown–Forman (BF-B)
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$30.96+0.91%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BF-B
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 17.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 1 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BF-B — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-09-21
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under “
Why it matters: The board is weighing internal and external candidates. A named successor would set the next leadership handoff in motion.
Watch forBrown-Forman names a CEO successor and gives a handoff date or transition plan.
Also watch forThe company reports the search is still open, or Whiting leaves before naming a successor.
Why it matters: Management guides to a 3% to 5% drop. A larger decline would point to more pressure on earnings.
Worry ifFiscal 2027 organic operating income falls by more than 5%.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2027 organic operating income falls by less than 3% or grows.
Why it matters: New Mix led the Ready-to-Drink gains, but its growth may be hard to sustain. More growth would support the brand's role as a sales driver.
Supportive ifNew Mix net sales rise at least 20% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifNew Mix net sales fall year over year in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: The company raised $500 million in 5.375% notes. It said the funds may support buybacks, dividends, or debt paydown.
Watch forA company filing or release confirms part of the note proceeds went to a stock repurchase program.
Also watch forA filing shows the proceeds went to debt paydown or other uses, with no stock repurchase announced.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$140 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $345 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,548 loss on $10,000 · 25.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Brown-Forman reaffirmed a flat sales outlook. Growth above that mark would show stronger demand than the current plan.
Supportive ifA fiscal 2027 update reports organic net sales growth above 0%.
Worry ifOrganic net sales fall below 0% for fiscal 2027.