Brown–Forman (BF-B)
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$26.73-2.84%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BF-B
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BF-B — CEO transition
Dated 2026-07-13
President and Chief Executive Officer — Lawson Whiting: Lawson Whiting announced his retirement after nearly 30 years of service.
Why it matters: The results of these talks affect the company's strategy and market position.
Watch forManagement shares new plans to boost growth after ending the previous strategy.
Also watch forNo new plans are shared, raising worries about the company's direction.
Why it matters: Changes in sector growth can affect Brown-Forman's success and market standing.
Watch forConsumer Staples sector revenue growth picks back up above 5% year over year.
Also watch forConsumer Staples sector revenue growth keeps slowing down to below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Progress on this plan could make operations better and help growth in the long run.
Supportive ifThe company shares good news about the progress of the restructuring plan.
Worry ifThe company reports problems or delays with the restructuring plan.
Why it matters: This initiative aims to make operations more efficient and increase profits. Success could boost long-term growth.
Supportive ifOperating income rises by over 5% year over year. This shows that restructuring is working.
Worry ifOperating income keeps falling or stays the same. This suggests that restructuring is not working.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$132 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $367 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,548 loss on $10,000 · 25.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The new CEO will shape the company's future direction. Leadership changes can impact investor confidence.
Watch forA press release announcing the appointment of a new CEO within the next three months.
Also watch forNo new CEO is appointed within six months, leading to uncertainty in leadership.
Why it matters: The new CEO will change Brown-Forman's future plans and operations. This change is important for keeping the business moving.
Watch forThe company announces the appointment of a new CEO who has a strong track record in the spirits industry.
Also watch forThe search for a new CEO is taking longer than expected. This creates uncertainty in leadership.
Why it matters: Economic factors can affect how much alcohol people buy. Changes may impact sales and plans.
Watch forConsumer Price Index shows inflation below 3%. This means better consumer spending.
Also watch forConsumer Price Index shows inflation above 5%. This means less consumer spending.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend policy can show management's confidence in cash flow. It affects how shareholders feel.
Watch forThe Board announces an increase in the quarterly dividend amount.
Also watch forThe Board decides to cut or suspend the dividend. This shows financial strain.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising dividends shows financial health and care for shareholders. This can change how investors feel.
Supportive ifThe company announces a rise in the quarterly cash dividend.
Worry ifThe company announces a cut or stop to the quarterly cash dividend.
Why it matters: What happens in these talks could change Brown-Forman's plans and market position.
Watch forA new announcement shows a deal with Pernod Ricard.
Also watch forNo new updates or a statement saying the talks are over.
Why it matters: The results will show if the company can stabilize sales after a challenging fiscal 2026. This is key for investor sentiment.
Worry ifOrganic net sales for Q1 fiscal 2027 show growth above 1%.
Less concerning ifOrganic net sales keep falling. This shows that the market is still facing challenges.
Why it matters: The dividend payment shows the company's financial health. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company pays the announced quarterly cash dividend of $0.2310 per share.
Worry ifThe company cuts or stops the dividend payment. This signals financial trouble.
Why it matters: Updates on share buybacks show confidence in cash flow and spending plans.
Supportive ifManagement announces a new share buyback program or extends the current one.
Worry ifManagement says there are no plans for more share buybacks.
Why it matters: The new CEO's vision will shape Brown-Forman's future strategy and growth.
Watch forA press release confirming the appointment of a new CEO.
Also watch forNo announcement of a new CEO by the end of the fiscal year.
Why it matters: Earnings results show how well strategies are working and how the market is doing. Better results mean stronger performance.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings show an increase in diluted earnings per share compared to the previous quarter.
Worry ifQ2 earnings show a decrease in diluted earnings per share compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: U.S. sales performance is critical for overall growth. A decline could indicate deeper market issues.
Worry ifU.S. net sales decline more than 7% year over year.
Less concerning ifU.S. net sales stabilize or grow year over year, indicating recovery.
Why it matters: The guidance shows how well Brown-Forman thinks it can handle market challenges. It shows management's confidence in growth.
Watch forManagement expects organic net sales growth to be better than flat.
Also watch forManagement expects a drop in organic net sales for fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Progress on this plan is important for better income and efficiency. Updates show future results.
Supportive ifManagement shares a major milestone. They finish a phase in the restructuring.
Worry ifManagement reports more delays. There are problems in the restructuring plan.
Why it matters: U.S. net sales declined 7% in fiscal 2026. Recovery is crucial for overall growth.
Supportive ifU.S. net sales grow year over year in fiscal 2027.
Worry ifU.S. net sales decline further in fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Flat organic net sales indicate the company is managing challenges well. It shows resilience in a tough market.
Supportive ifQ2 organic net sales were about the same as last year.
Worry ifQ2 organic net sales decline more than 1% year over year.
Why it matters: Completing the share repurchase shows commitment to returning value to shareholders. It may boost stock price.
Supportive ifManagement says the $400 million share buyback program is done.
Worry ifManagement says there are delays or cuts to the share buyback program.
Why it matters: Operating income in this range shows the company is controlling costs. It shows good health.
Worry ifQ2 operating income dropped by 3% to 5% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifOperating income dropped more than 5% compared to last year.