Brown–Forman (BF-B)
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$26.73-2.84%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue near $3.93 billion in 2026-Q4: FY26 revenue ~$3.93B vs 3.93B target; Q4 YoY +2.0%.
Brown-Forman owns strong brands like Jack Daniel's. It aims for about $1 billion operating income in 2026-Q4. The company completed a $400 million share buyback in 2025. Profit margins should stay near 25-27% next year.
Revenue fell 1% to $3.9 billion in 2026-Q4. Operating income dropped 10% to $1 billion. Earnings missed estimates in the latest quarter. Restructuring progress is slow and may hurt growth.
The price is about 11% below our fair value near $29. Analysts expect about 1% revenue growth. Our view aligns with this cautious outlook.
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $1.0 billion in 2026-Q4
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 25% in FY27
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $3.93 billion in 2026-Q4
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady dividend growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by a consistent dividend history and recent earnings performance, despite some challenges in execution quality.
The valuation appears cheap relative to peers, with a low expectations gap. The market seems to have priced in the fragility of earnings quality but not the full extent of potential risks or rewards.
Fundamentals may remain stable in the near term, as management has reaffirmed guidance and is actively executing a strategic restructuring initiative. However, the earnings quality is fragile, which could lead to variability in performance.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to execute the restructuring initiative and maintain dividend growth. Additionally, external factors like inflation trends and performance of sector peers will be crucial for future momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Company momentum rose by 41.7 points (from -47.1 to -5.4).
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company guided for flat organic net sales. It also expects organic operating income to decline by 3% to 5%. This cautious guidance aligns market expectations with lower revenue growth. However, the company rejected a takeover bid, supporting its independence. There are also concerns about management strategy and leadership.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Buyback program not completed by end 2025
Execute the authorized $400 million share repurchase program to return capital to shareholders.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management authorized a $400 million share repurchase program in 2026-Q1 and completed it by December 2025 as confirmed in 2026-Q4. This demonstrates delivery on the capital return commitment within the planned timeframe.
“The company returned $400 million to stockholders through its share repurchase program, which was completed in December 2025.”
“The $400 million share repurchase program was completed in December 2025.”
“The Brown-Forman Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of $400 million of outstanding shares.”
In the next 1 to 3 years, BF-B's performance will depend on effective management execution and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.