Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-04-30 · fmp
Brown–Forman (BF-B)
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$30.96+0.91%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.71 → 1.71 EPS · FY ending Apr 30, 2028 · 17 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 17; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BF-B yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating income near $1.0 billion in 2026-Q4 | It aims for about $1 billion operating income in 2026-Q4. | Under Pressure | Operating income falls below $1.0 billion in 2026-Q4 | Operating income: $252M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=1.0 USD_BILLIONS. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Sep 2, 2026252,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-04-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a consumer staples business with a sector tailwind, but its earnings quality is fragile and recent performance is neutral. The long-term thesis is intact, with a recent signal shift to mildly favorable, though restructuring execution and modest results leave meaningful uncertainty.
The valuation model places BF-B at a 15% premium to peers, while the expectations gap is modest and the valuation signal is described as justified. This suggests the market is not pricing in a large execution collapse, but the premium leaves less room for weak results than a cheaper peer valuation would.
Near term, management’s fiscal 2027 outlook calls for roughly flat organic sales and a 3% to 5% decline in organic operating income, with recent results broadly consistent with that path. The restructuring remains active and carries ongoing charges, while dividend growth has stayed on track; erratic earnings and a 35% estimated miss probability remain risks.
The multi-year thesis depends on whether restructuring improves costs and supports future growth without further weakening results. A guidance cut or continued deterioration in jobs data would add pressure, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the industry backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BF-B’s thesis is intact but rests on execution against a modest-growth outlook, with fragile earnings quality and a peer valuation premium as key constraints. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 6 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““We finished the fiscal year ahead of our expectations, driven by strong execution in our innovation portfolio, the early benefits of our U.S. route-to-market transformation, and strategic cost-restructuring initiatives,” said President and Chief Executive Officer Lawson Whiting.” “These restructuring costs are in line with expectations and should deliver $70 to $80 million in annualized savings to invest in future growth.”
Operating margin between 25% and 27% in FY27 | A supporting condition in Brown–Forman's published investment case. The stated target is >=25% and <=27%. | Intact | Operating margin falls below 25% in FY27 | Operating margin: 27.66% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=25% and <=27%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 2, 202627.66191 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue near $3.93 billion in 2026-Q4 | A primary condition in Brown–Forman's published investment case. The stated target is >=3.93 USD_BILLIONS. | Broken | Revenue falls below $3.93 billion in 2026-Q4 | Revenue: $911M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=3.93 USD_BILLIONS. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Sep 2, 2026911,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete $400 million share buyback by end 2025 | The company completed a $400 million share buyback in 2025. | Intact | Buyback program not completed by end 2025 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.71 → $1.71 · observed estimates
$4.02B → $4.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.71 | $4,016,943,424 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.71 | $4,016,943,424 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.71 | $4,016,943,424 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.71 | $4,016,943,424 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.71 | $4,016,943,424 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.71 | $4,016,943,424 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.71 | $4,016,943,424 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.71 | $4,016,947,657 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.71 | $4,016,947,657 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.71 | $4,016,947,657 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.71 | $4,016,947,657 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.71 | $4,020,067,918 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.71 | $4,020,067,918 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.71 | $4,020,067,918 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.71 | $4,020,067,918 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.71 | $4,020,067,918 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.71 | $4,020,067,918 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.71 | $4,020,067,918 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.71 | $4,020,067,918 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.71 | $4,020,067,918 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.71 | $4,020,067,918 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.71 | $4,020,067,918 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.71 | $4,020,067,918 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.71 | $4,020,067,918 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.71 | $4,020,067,918 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.71 | $4,020,067,918 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.71 | $4,020,067,918 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.71 | $4,018,567,918 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.71 | $4,018,567,918 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.71 | $4,016,151,252 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.71 | $4,016,151,252 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.71 | $4,016,151,252 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.71 | $4,016,151,252 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.71 | $4,016,151,252 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.71 | $4,016,151,252 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.71 | $4,016,151,252 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.71 | $4,013,742,918 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.71 | $4,013,742,918 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.71 | $4,013,742,918 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.71 | $4,013,742,918 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.71 | $4,013,298,494 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.72 | $4,006,090,420 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.72 | $4,004,266,839 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.71 | $4,001,781,145 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.71 | $4,001,781,145 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.71 | $4,001,781,145 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.71 | $4,003,616,394 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.71 | $4,001,844,594 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.71 | $4,001,841,909 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.71 | $4,001,841,909 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.71 | $4,001,841,909 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.71 | $4,001,841,909 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.71 | $4,001,841,909 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.71 | $4,001,841,909 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.71 | $4,001,841,909 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.71 | $4,001,841,909 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.71 | $4,001,841,909 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.71 | $4,001,841,909 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.71 | $4,001,841,909 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.71 | $4,001,841,909 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.71 | $4,001,841,909 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.71 | $4,001,841,909 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.71 | $4,001,841,909 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.71 | $4,001,841,909 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.71 | $4,001,841,909 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.71 | $4,001,841,909 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.71 | $4,001,841,909 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.71 | $4,001,841,909 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.71 | $4,001,841,909 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.71 | $4,001,841,909 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.71 | $4,001,841,909 | 17 / 16 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.