Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Bank First Corp. (BFC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$147.45-1.44%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
11.31 → 12.06 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BFC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS growth to at least $3.10 in 2026 | EPS is guided to at least $3.10 in 2026. | Intact | EPS falls below $3.10 in FY 2026 | Diluted EPS: $2.21 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $3.10 for FY 2026. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Aug 7, 20262.21 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BFC is a regional banking growth and acquisition story, rather than a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is still in progress: management is growing the business and advancing the Peoples acquisition, while recent results have weakened the signal.
BFC trades at a substantial premium to peers, with the valuation model showing a 1.67 premium and a modest expectations gap. The premium is described as durable and justified, while the evidence does not show that the market is pricing in the full combination of fragile earnings quality, expensive valuation, and turbulence.
Near term, earnings execution is the main concern: BFC missed recently, momentum fell sharply, and the signal shifted from mildly favorable to mixed. In the multi-year view, assets and loans are growing, but Peoples is not yet complete and Centre cost savings are only in early delivery; reported expenses edged higher sequentially.
The thesis depends on management completing Peoples, sustaining disciplined loan growth, and showing clearer Centre savings. Near term, a guidance cut or falling rates would weigh on the setup, while continued earnings strength from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BFC has a credible growth path, but fragile earnings quality, recent underperformance versus its industry cohort, and an expensive valuation make execution the key test. The thesis remains on watch, with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company aims to complete the PSB Holdings merger, expanding its market. |
| Intact |
| Merger with PSB Holdings fails or delays beyond 2026-Q3 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain share repurchase program up to $60M annually | The share buyback program supports shareholder value. | Intact | Buyback program is suspended or materially reduced before 2028 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$12.03 → $12.06 · observed estimates
$0.35B → $0.34B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $12.03 | $347,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $11.93 | $342,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $11.93 | $342,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $11.93 | $342,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $11.93 | $342,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $11.93 | $342,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $11.93 | $342,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $11.93 | $342,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $11.93 | $342,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $11.93 | $342,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $11.93 | $342,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $11.93 | $342,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $11.93 | $342,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $11.93 | $342,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $11.93 | $342,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $11.93 | $342,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $11.93 | $342,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $11.93 | $342,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $11.93 | $342,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $11.31 | $307,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $11.38 | $308,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $11.38 | $308,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $11.38 | $308,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $11.38 | $308,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $11.38 | $308,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $11.38 | $308,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $11.38 | $308,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $11.38 | $308,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $12.06 | $344,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $12.06 | $344,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $12.06 | $344,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $12.06 | $344,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $12.06 | $344,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $12.06 | $344,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.