Bank First Corp. (BFC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$156.23+0.90%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BFC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 30.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
BFC — President transition
Dated 2026-06-18
Director — Stephen E. Johnson: Stephen E. Johnson retired from the Board of Directors, with new directors elected.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a slowdown in the financial sector. This could hurt Bank First's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of the last three years.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above its median for the next quarter.
Why it matters: More nonperforming assets may mean credit problems. This can hurt future earnings.
Worry ifNonperforming assets rise above $30 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNonperforming assets drop or stay under $30 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue growth after this merger shows if the strategy is working. It reflects the success of recent acquisitions.
Supportive ifRevenue growth reported above 10% year over year in the next quarter after the merger.
Worry ifRevenue growth is less than 5% compared to last year. This shows integration problems.
Why it matters: Raising dividends shows good use of money. It also shows the company is financially strong.
Supportive ifThe quarterly cash dividend rises above $0.60 in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe quarterly cash dividend remains at $0.60 or decreases in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This merger will increase total assets to about $7.6 billion. It is key for growth.
Supportive ifThe merger closes as planned in Q4 2026 without delays.
Worry ifThe merger faces delays or complications that push the closing date beyond Q4 2026.
Why it matters: This new business line is important. It helps the company make more money and grow.
Supportive ifTrust and Wealth Management income exceeds $2 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifTrust and Wealth Management income stays below $1.6 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Nonperforming assets can show credit quality. They can also affect how investors feel.
Worry ifNonperforming assets drop below $27.8 million in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifNonperforming assets rise above $30 million in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$81 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $265 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,417 loss on $10,000 · 14.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.