Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (BFH)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$102.57-2.16%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
13.68 → 14.06 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BFH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Deliver share buybacks of at least $150 million per quarter | The company repurchased $150 million of stock, showing strong capital return. | Intact | Share repurchases fall below $100 million next quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a financial company with a growth-and-credit execution thesis, rather than a clear durable compounder today. Its thesis state is watch: credit measures improved year over year, but recent financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort and company quality has declined.
The evidence describes BFH as cheap versus peers, with low pricing fragility and expectations that appear broadly justified. The expectations gap is slightly negative, so the valuation evidence does not point to a large cushion against weaker execution.
Near term, the latest evidence includes an earnings beat, while a guidance cut remains a meaningful risk; the stated chance of a miss is low, but the company has had a deep miss in its recent history. Over the multi-year view, partnership-led credit sales growth and improved loss and delinquency rates support the business, while nearly flat expenses despite revenue growth show limited progress on operating leverage.
The multi-year thesis hinges on BFH sustaining responsible loan and partnership growth while improving credit performance and controlling expenses. Near term, a guidance cut or Fed rate cuts are unfavorable risks in the evidence, while continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers V, MA, and AXP would support sector momentum.
BFH has a cheap-versus-peers valuation and some improving credit indicators, but weak relative performance and uneven management execution keep the 1-to-3-year thesis in watch status. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Bread Financial Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=$243 million. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below $200 million next quarter |
Operating income: $209M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$243 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 27, 2026209,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain revenue growth near 5% YoY | A primary condition in Bread Financial Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 3% next year | Revenue growth: 4.19% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 27, 20264.186795 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain valuation below peer median PE of 10.56 | A supporting condition in Bread Financial Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is <=10.56 PE. | Intact | PE rises above 12 next 12 months without earnings growth | P/E (TTM): 7.69x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 20267.6855 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$12.79 → $14.06 · observed estimates
$4.12B → $4.15B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $12.79 | $4,115,276,840 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $12.79 | $4,115,308,270 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $13.09 | $4,136,380,410 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $13.46 | $4,149,694,292 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $13.19 | $4,140,737,560 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $13.19 | $4,140,737,560 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-30 | $13.31 | $4,143,023,270 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $13.31 | $4,143,023,270 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-01 | $13.56 | $4,149,694,292 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $13.31 | $4,143,023,270 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-03 | $13.31 | $4,143,023,270 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $13.31 | $4,143,023,270 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $13.37 | $4,151,071,820 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-06 | $13.37 | $4,151,071,820 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-07 | $13.56 | $4,149,694,292 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $13.37 | $4,151,071,820 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-09 | $13.37 | $4,151,071,820 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-10 | $13.37 | $4,151,071,820 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-11 | $13.37 | $4,151,071,820 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $13.37 | $4,151,071,820 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-13 | $13.37 | $4,151,071,820 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $13.56 | $4,149,694,292 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $13.56 | $4,149,694,292 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $13.56 | $4,149,694,292 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $13.56 | $4,149,694,292 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $13.56 | $4,149,694,292 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $13.56 | $4,149,694,292 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $13.61 | $4,158,360,571 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $13.61 | $4,158,360,571 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $13.61 | $4,158,360,571 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $13.61 | $4,158,360,571 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $13.61 | $4,158,360,571 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $13.61 | $4,158,360,571 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $13.61 | $4,158,437,494 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $13.61 | $4,158,437,494 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $13.61 | $4,158,437,494 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $13.61 | $4,158,437,494 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $13.61 | $4,158,437,494 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $13.61 | $4,158,437,494 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $13.61 | $4,158,437,494 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $13.61 | $4,158,437,494 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $13.61 | $4,158,437,494 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $13.61 | $4,158,437,494 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $13.61 | $4,163,640,619 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $13.61 | $4,163,640,619 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $13.61 | $4,163,640,619 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $13.61 | $4,163,640,619 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $13.61 | $4,163,640,619 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $13.61 | $4,163,640,619 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $13.61 | $4,163,640,619 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $13.61 | $4,161,899,032 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $13.61 | $4,161,899,032 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $13.61 | $4,161,899,032 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $13.61 | $4,161,899,032 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $13.61 | $4,161,899,032 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $13.61 | $4,161,899,032 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $13.61 | $4,161,899,032 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $13.61 | $4,161,899,032 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $13.61 | $4,161,899,032 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $13.61 | $4,161,899,032 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $13.68 | $4,161,853,119 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $13.68 | $4,161,853,119 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $13.68 | $4,161,853,119 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $13.68 | $4,161,853,119 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $13.68 | $4,161,853,119 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $13.68 | $4,161,853,119 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $13.68 | $4,161,853,119 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $13.68 | $4,161,853,119 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $13.68 | $4,161,853,119 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $13.68 | $4,162,686,452 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $13.70 | $4,162,686,452 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $13.70 | $4,162,686,452 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $13.70 | $4,162,686,452 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $13.68 | $4,162,686,452 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $13.68 | $4,162,686,452 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $13.77 | $4,160,735,343 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $13.80 | $4,167,052,011 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $13.80 | $4,167,052,011 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $13.80 | $4,167,052,011 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $13.80 | $4,163,852,011 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $13.80 | $4,163,852,011 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $13.80 | $4,163,852,011 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $13.80 | $4,163,852,011 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $13.83 | $4,163,852,011 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $13.83 | $4,163,852,011 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $13.83 | $4,163,852,011 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $13.83 | $4,163,852,011 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $13.83 | $4,163,852,011 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $13.83 | $4,163,852,011 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $13.83 | $4,168,518,677 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $13.83 | $4,168,518,677 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $13.99 | $4,155,391,448 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $14.04 | $4,144,773,266 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $14.04 | $4,144,773,266 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $14.04 | $4,150,167,811 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $14.04 | $4,150,167,811 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $14.06 | $4,150,168,421 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $14.06 | $4,150,168,421 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $14.06 | $4,150,168,421 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $14.06 | $4,150,168,421 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $14.06 | $4,150,168,421 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $14.06 | $4,150,168,421 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $14.06 | $4,153,045,667 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $14.06 | $4,153,045,667 | 11 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.