Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (BFH)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$110.87+1.91%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BFH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -12.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers
BFH — President transition
Dated 2026-07-14
Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer — Valerie Greer: Valerie Greer is retiring from her role as Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer.
Why it matters: A net loss rate over 7.1% shows worse credit quality and risk management.
Worry ifQ3 net loss rate reported above 7.1%.
Less concerning ifNet loss rate reported below 7.0%.
Why it matters: A lower loss rate means better credit quality. This helps keep things stable.
Supportive ifNet principal loss rate remains below 7% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet principal loss rate exceeds 7% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Share buybacks may show that management believes in the company's worth.
Supportive ifManagement announces more share repurchases in Q3. This shows confidence in the stock.
Worry ifNo share repurchases are announced in Q3. This suggests worries about valuation.
Why it matters: Updates on the new CCO could signal changes in strategy or direction for the company.
Watch forA new Chief Commercial Officer has been named. They shared their plan for the future.
Also watch forNo updates or clarity on the new CCO's role and strategy.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$148 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $360 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,835 loss on $10,000 · 18.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A delinquency rate under 5.25% means strong credit performance. It also shows good risk management.
Supportive ifDelinquency rate is below 5.25%.
Worry ifDelinquency rate is above 5.35%.
Why it matters: A new buyback program shows strong capital use. It shows management's confidence. This may help the share price.
Supportive ifA new share buyback program was announced. It is over $600 million.
Worry ifThere is no new buyback program announced. The existing program is not reduced.
Why it matters: Revenue growth under 7% shows a slowdown in business and may affect investors.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 7%.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth reported at or above 7%.
Why it matters: A higher delinquency rate may mean worse credit quality. This can hurt future earnings.
Worry ifThe Q3 delinquency rate is over 5.35%. This shows a possible rise in credit risk.
Less concerning ifThe Q3 delinquency rate is below 5.35%. This suggests credit quality is getting better.
Why it matters: Higher net loss rates may mean more credit risk. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifManagement raises the net loss rate guidance for 2026 above 7.1%.
Less concerning ifNet loss rate guidance is at or below 7.0%. This shows stable credit quality.
Why it matters: The new Chief Revenue Officer's strategies could affect revenue. This is important for future growth.
Watch forRevenue growth improves in Q3 2026 compared to Q2 2026.
Also watch forRevenue growth declines in Q3 2026 compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher charge-offs can mean worse credit quality. This may affect future earnings.
Worry ifNet charge-offs are above 7.0%.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs remain below 6.5%.
Why it matters: Average loan growth below 3% would suggest weakening demand and could impact revenue.
Worry ifAverage loan growth reported below 3%.
Less concerning ifAverage loan growth reported at or above 3%.
Why it matters: More changes in leadership can disrupt plans. This can lower investor confidence.
Worry ifThere is news of another big executive change in the leadership team.
Less concerning ifNo new executive changes are announced. This shows stable leadership.
Why it matters: Strong growth in operating income shows good cost management. It also shows revenue growth. This can improve market perception.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income growth exceeds 20% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 operating income growth is below 10% year over year.