Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (BFH)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$102.57-2.16%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BFH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -18.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -15.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BFH — capital allocation — Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders
Dated 2026-11-03
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. On November 2, 2026, Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) filed a Certificate of Designations (effective November 3, 2026) (the “Certificate of Designations”) with the Secretary of State of the State of Delaware, establishing the voting rights, powers, preferences and privileges, and the relative, participating, optional and other rights, and the qualifications, limitations or restrictions thereof, of its 9.375% Fixed Rate Reset N…
Why it matters: The offering is set to raise about $120 million for general company use. Its close would add capital, but the 9.375% rate also adds a high-cost funding source.
Watch forThe offering closes on November 3, with net proceeds near $120 million and no material change to the stated use of funds.
Also watch forThe offering does not close, or final proceeds are well below the stated $120 million estimate.
Why it matters: Deposits were up 21% to $9.9 billion. Management said the merged bank could help grow deposits and add funding flexibility.
Supportive ifLater results show consumer deposits keep rising from $9.9 billion and make up more than 53% of total funding.
Worry ifConsumer deposits fall below $9.9 billion, or their share of total funding drops below 53%.
Why it matters: Credit losses affect earnings and the funds set aside for unpaid loans. Management has improved its 2026 loss-rate outlook twice.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 net loss rate is below 7.0%, as management guided.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 net loss rate is 7.0% or higher, or management raises its outlook above 7.0%.
Why it matters: Loan growth is a key driver of revenue. Management linked its outlook to partner growth and its sales pipeline.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 average loans rise about 4% from 2025, while credit sales remain above the prior year.
Worry ifFull-year average loan growth falls well below 4%, or credit sales turn lower year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$146 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $351 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,606 loss on $10,000 · 16.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Revenue grew 5% in Q3, while costs grew 2%. Management tied its full-year goal to keeping costs below revenue growth.
Supportive ifFor the full year, revenue grows faster than non-interest expenses. Exclude debt repurchases.
Worry ifFor the full year, non-interest expenses grow as fast as or faster than revenue. Exclude the effects of debt repurchases.