Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Biogen (BIIB)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-11-04
$243.93-4.14%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
16.55 → 16.27 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 21 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 20 to 21; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BIIB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain free cash flow yield near 8% | Profit margins remain stable with steady cash flow. | Intact | FCF yield falls below 8% | Free cash flow yield: 5.51% As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 20265.51 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a portfolio-renewal story: established commercial products are contributing to revenue while late-stage programs are developed for future growth. The long-term thesis is intact, but the signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable as pipeline outcomes and cost discipline remain uncertain.
The valuation evidence is mixed: BIIB is described as cheap versus peers, but its peer premium measure is 0.99 and the expectations gap is -0.16. The priced-in assessment is justified, with no fragility flags, though model confidence is medium.
Near-term results have been strong, with revenue rising from $2.279 billion in 2025-Q4 to $2.804 billion in 2026-Q3, and the latest two reported earnings events were positive beats. Management has raised revenue guidance from a mid-single-digit decline to a mid-single-digit increase during 2026, but higher research and selling expenses limit evidence of cost savings; several Phase 3 readouts are expected over the next 12 months.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued growth from the commercial portfolio and successful outcomes from late-stage pipeline programs. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback, while continued strong results and higher guidance from healthcare sector peers would support the sector backdrop; weakening employment data is a stated risk.
For the next 1 to 3 years, BIIB’s stronger recent performance supports an intact but less favorable thesis, with pipeline execution and expense discipline still important tests. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Biogen's published investment case. The stated target is EPS 2026 between $14.25 and $15.25; EPS 2027 >= $16.63. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $14.25 in FY26 or below $16.63 in FY27 |
Diluted EPS: $-0.14 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS 2026 between $14.25 and $15.25; EPS 2027 >= $16.63. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 28, 2026-0.14 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful integration and pipeline expansion from acquisitions | A supporting condition in Biogen's published investment case. The stated target is Pipeline and business development progress supporting growth. | Improving | Significant setbacks or pipeline reductions from acquisitions | Qualitative: $250M synergies targeted by 2027; Q3 beat with raised EPS guidance Q3 2026 earnings beat estimates; newly acquired drugs contributed to sales; synergy targets reinforced. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage mid-single digit revenue decline in 2026 | Biogen manages a mid-single digit revenue decline in 2026. | Intact | revenue decline exceeds 5% YoY in FY26 | Revenue growth: 10.63% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: revenue decline <= 5% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 202610.628477 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$16.46 → $16.27 · observed estimates
$10.33B → $10.78B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $16.46 | $10,329,510,180 | 29 / 28 |
| 2026-07-25 | $16.39 | $10,317,219,830 | 28 / 27 |
| 2026-07-26 | $16.39 | $10,317,219,830 | 28 / 27 |
| 2026-07-27 | $16.42 | $10,318,175,650 | 28 / 27 |
| 2026-07-28 | $16.42 | $10,318,175,650 | 28 / 27 |
| 2026-07-29 | $16.48 | $10,321,904,360 | 29 / 28 |
| 2026-07-30 | $16.48 | $10,321,904,360 | 29 / 28 |
| 2026-07-31 | $16.54 | $10,545,444,630 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-08-01 | $16.48 | $10,321,904,360 | 29 / 28 |
| 2026-08-02 | $16.57 | $10,620,066,450 | 31 / 30 |
| 2026-08-03 | $16.57 | $10,620,066,450 | 31 / 30 |
| 2026-08-04 | $16.57 | $10,620,066,450 | 31 / 30 |
| 2026-08-05 | $16.59 | $10,624,903,010 | 32 / 31 |
| 2026-08-06 | $16.59 | $10,624,903,010 | 32 / 31 |
| 2026-08-07 | $16.59 | $10,628,614,883 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-08 | $16.59 | $10,624,910,590 | 32 / 31 |
| 2026-08-09 | $16.59 | $10,624,910,590 | 32 / 31 |
| 2026-08-10 | $16.59 | $10,624,910,590 | 32 / 31 |
| 2026-08-11 | $16.59 | $10,628,614,883 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-12 | $16.60 | $10,635,425,480 | 32 / 31 |
| 2026-08-13 | $16.60 | $10,635,425,480 | 32 / 31 |
| 2026-08-14 | $16.59 | $10,628,614,883 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-15 | $16.59 | $10,628,614,883 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-16 | $16.59 | $10,628,614,883 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-17 | $16.59 | $10,628,614,883 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-18 | $16.59 | $10,628,614,883 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-19 | $16.59 | $10,628,614,883 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-08-20 | $16.54 | $10,661,768,964 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-08-21 | $16.54 | $10,661,768,964 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-08-22 | $16.54 | $10,661,768,964 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-08-23 | $16.54 | $10,661,768,964 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-08-24 | $16.54 | $10,661,768,964 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-08-25 | $16.54 | $10,661,768,964 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-08-26 | $16.54 | $10,661,768,964 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-08-27 | $16.54 | $10,661,768,964 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-08-28 | $16.54 | $10,661,768,964 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-08-29 | $16.54 | $10,661,768,964 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-08-30 | $16.54 | $10,661,768,964 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-08-31 | $16.54 | $10,661,768,964 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-09-01 | $16.54 | $10,661,768,964 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-09-02 | $16.54 | $10,661,768,964 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-09-03 | $16.55 | $10,668,863,299 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-09-04 | $16.55 | $10,668,863,299 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-09-05 | $16.55 | $10,668,863,299 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-09-06 | $16.55 | $10,668,863,299 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-09-07 | $16.55 | $10,668,863,299 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-09-08 | $16.55 | $10,668,863,299 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-09-09 | $16.55 | $10,668,863,299 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-09-10 | $16.55 | $10,668,863,299 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-09-11 | $16.55 | $10,668,937,955 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-09-12 | $16.55 | $10,668,937,955 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-09-13 | $16.55 | $10,668,937,955 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-09-14 | $16.55 | $10,668,937,955 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-09-15 | $16.55 | $10,668,937,955 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-09-16 | $16.55 | $10,668,937,955 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-09-17 | $16.55 | $10,668,937,955 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-09-18 | $16.55 | $10,668,937,955 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-09-19 | $16.55 | $10,668,937,955 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-09-20 | $16.55 | $10,668,937,955 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-09-21 | $16.55 | $10,668,937,955 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-09-22 | $16.55 | $10,668,937,955 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-09-23 | $16.55 | $10,668,937,955 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-09-24 | $16.55 | $10,668,937,955 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-09-25 | $16.55 | $10,668,937,955 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-09-26 | $16.55 | $10,668,937,955 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-09-27 | $16.55 | $10,668,937,955 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-09-28 | $16.55 | $10,668,937,955 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-09-29 | $16.55 | $10,668,937,955 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-09-30 | $16.55 | $10,668,937,955 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-10-01 | $16.55 | $10,668,937,955 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-10-02 | $16.55 | $10,668,937,955 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-10-03 | $16.55 | $10,668,937,955 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-10-04 | $16.55 | $10,668,937,955 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-10-05 | $16.55 | $10,668,937,955 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-10-06 | $16.55 | $10,668,931,504 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-10-07 | $16.55 | $10,669,608,923 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-10-08 | $16.55 | $10,669,608,923 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-10-09 | $16.53 | $10,666,937,955 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-10-10 | $16.53 | $10,666,937,955 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-10-11 | $16.55 | $10,674,393,750 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-10-12 | $16.55 | $10,674,393,750 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-10-13 | $16.57 | $10,674,942,137 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-10-14 | $16.50 | $10,674,432,607 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-10-15 | $16.50 | $10,674,432,607 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-10-16 | $16.50 | $10,674,432,607 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-17 | $16.50 | $10,674,432,607 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-18 | $16.49 | $10,668,418,607 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-19 | $16.49 | $10,668,418,607 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-20 | $16.50 | $10,667,234,982 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-21 | $16.43 | $10,691,077,256 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-22 | $16.42 | $10,691,012,740 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-23 | $16.41 | $10,686,596,365 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-10-24 | $16.41 | $10,686,596,365 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-10-25 | $16.41 | $10,686,596,365 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-10-26 | $16.41 | $10,686,596,365 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-10-27 | $16.41 | $10,686,596,365 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-10-28 | $16.41 | $10,687,122,439 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-10-29 | $16.41 | $10,739,503,478 | 20 / 25 |
| 2026-10-30 | $16.25 | $10,757,072,589 | 20 / 25 |
| 2026-10-31 | $16.27 | $10,762,879,040 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-11-01 | $16.27 | $10,762,879,040 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-11-02 | $16.27 | $10,762,879,040 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-11-03 | $16.27 | $10,778,911,298 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-11-04 | $16.27 | $10,778,911,298 | 21 / 25 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 25 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 19 recorded
4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.