Biogen (BIIB)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-11-04
$254.46+2.22%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BIIB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BIIB — credit agreement
Dated 2026-05-14
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. CVR Agreement As previously disclosed, on March 31, 2026, Biogen Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Biogen”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) with Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Apellis”), and Aspen Purchaser Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly owned subsidiary of Biogen (“Purchaser”). Pursuant to the Merger Agreement and in connection with the irrevocable acceptance for payment b…
Why it matters: Growth products helped lift Q3 revenue 11% year over year. Meeting the full-year plan would support the return to growth.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 revenue grows by a mid-single-digit percentage, as Biogen guided. Growth Portfolio sales help drive the increase.
Worry ifFull-year revenue grows by less than 3% year over year or falls, below the stated mid-single-digit growth plan.
Why it matters: These trials test litifilimab as a possible growth driver. Positive results would support its next steps.
Supportive ifBiogen reports that both trials met their main goals in the planned first-half-of-December readout.
Worry ifEither trial misses its primary endpoint, or Biogen delays the readout beyond the planned window.
Why it matters: SYFOVRE and EMPAVELI added new sales and were part of Q3 growth. Continued demand would support the deal's growth case.
Supportive ifIn the next reported quarter, SYFOVRE and EMPAVELI each post higher sales than in Q3 2026. Sales were $191 million and $52 million, respectively.
Worry ifEither product posts lower sales than in Q3 2026, or Biogen says integration is not going well.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$133 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $297 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,434 loss on $10,000 · 14.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.