Biogen (BIIB)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-09-04
$220.83-1.64%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BIIB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -27.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 4.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers
BIIB — credit agreement
Dated 2026-05-14
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. CVR Agreement As previously disclosed, on March 31, 2026, Biogen Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Biogen”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) with Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Apellis”), and Aspen Purchaser Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly owned subsidiary of Biogen (“Purchaser”). Pursuant to the Merger Agreement and in connection with the irrevocable acceptance for payment b…
Why it matters: Closing this deal will show Biogen's commitment to expanding its rare disease portfolio.
Supportive ifThe Reata acquisition will finish as planned in Q4 2023.
Worry ifThe deal may be delayed or fail. This could happen because of rules or shareholder problems.
Why it matters: These results show that Biogen's late-stage pipeline is strong. This is key for future growth.
Watch forThere is positive Phase 3 data for litifilimab in SLE and other uses.
Also watch forThere is negative Phase 3 data for litifilimab. There may be delays in reporting.
Why it matters: A decline in EPS could signal issues with revenue growth or cost management.
Worry ifQ3 non-GAAP diluted EPS was over $3.60.
Less concerning ifQ3 non-GAAP diluted EPS was below $3.60.
Why it matters: New guidance will reflect the impact of recent acquisitions on revenue and EPS.
Supportive ifBiogen raises its financial guidance for 2023. This shows strong integration of Apellis and Reata.
Worry ifBiogen lowers its financial guidance for 2023. This suggests problems with the acquisitions.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$127 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $293 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,434 loss on $10,000 · 14.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The readout will show how well Biogen can succeed in nephrology.
Supportive ifThe Phase 3 trial meets its main goal. This signals possible approval and market entry.
Worry ifThe trial does not meet its main goal. This shows setbacks in Biogen's nephrology plans.
Why it matters: Initial sales will show how well Biogen adds Apellis' products to its lineup.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue from Apellis products is over $100 million. This shows strong market acceptance.
Worry ifRevenue from Apellis products is under $50 million. This shows poor market performance.
Why it matters: How well Biogen handles revenue decline will affect its growth and investor trust.
Worry ifBiogen reports stable or growing revenue. This shows it is managing declines well.
Less concerning ifBiogen reports more revenue declines. This suggests ongoing problems in its core business.
Why it matters: Sales trends will show how well the product is accepted and its revenue impact.
Watch forLEQEMBI sales rise above $200 million in a quarter. This shows strong demand.
Also watch forSales fall below $150 million. This suggests weakening demand.
Why it matters: Positive results could help Biogen in the nephrology market. This may boost revenue.
Supportive ifThe Phase 3 trial meets its main goal. This shows it works for kidney transplant patients.
Worry ifThe trial does not meet its main goal. This raises doubts about the product.
Why it matters: Good integration can help Biogen make more money and increase earnings.
Supportive ifManagement says the Apellis integration is going well. They expect to save at least $250 million.
Worry ifIf there are integration problems, savings may be delayed until after 2027.
Why it matters: Strong Growth Portfolio performance is key to Biogen's sustainable revenue goals. Exceeding 20% growth would show strong momentum.
Supportive ifQ3 Growth Portfolio revenue grows more than 20% compared to last year.
Worry ifGrowth Portfolio revenue growth drops below 15% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Guidance updates show how management sees business performance. This can change how investors feel.
Watch forManagement raises full year 2026 Non-GAAP EPS guidance above $15.85.
Also watch forManagement lowers full year 2026 Non-GAAP EPS guidance below $14.25.