Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
Bill Holdings (BILL)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$51.87+4.11%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.40 → 4.42 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BILL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross margin near 81.6% | Profit margin is near 82%. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 78% next year | Gross margin: 81.66% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=81.6%. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 27, 202681.660075 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““We enter FY’27 on a clear path to meaningful GAAP profitability, with the focus, accountability, and alignment to sustain it.”” ““Our Q3 results continue to demonstrate our ability to drive growth while significantly improving margins,” said Rohini Jain, BILL CFO.” Revenue was $436.185 million in 2026-Q4. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk growth business, not yet a proven compounder, with a long-term thesis that depends on growth becoming more profitable. The thesis is in a watch state: recent performance trails its industry cohort, though it has not newly broken.
The valuation signal is mixed: BILL is marked cheap versus peers, while the model also shows a 61% premium versus peers and a negative expectations gap. The valuation measure fell by 11.4 points, and priced-in fragility is low, but the snapshot does not explain the conflicting peer comparisons.
Near term, revenue grew from $406.6 million in 2026-Q1 to $436.2 million in 2026-Q2, but BILL still reported a $34.3 million GAAP operating loss. Management has repeatedly emphasized growth with better margins, AI-native products, and a workforce reduction of up to 30%; evidence of AI revenue and completed workforce cuts is not provided. Recent performance is weak, and erratic earnings surprises and peer misses remain risks, although the stated near-term miss probability is low.
The main near-term downside trigger is a guidance cut on the next call. For the multi-year thesis, the key question is whether revenue growth can translate into better margins and whether AI products show measurable adoption. Fed rate cuts or steadier results and guidance from major technology peers could improve the sector backdrop, while continued pressure would leave that support absent.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BILL’s thesis rests on turning revenue growth into sustained progress toward profitability while showing evidence that its product and restructuring plans are working. Current evidence is mixed, so execution and upcoming guidance remain central. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Core revenue growth of about 16% year-over-year | A primary condition in Bill Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is >=16% YoY. | Under Pressure | Core revenue growth falls below 10% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““We enter FY’27 on a clear path to meaningful GAAP profitability, with the focus, accountability, and alignment to sustain it.”” ““Our Q3 results continue to demonstrate our ability to drive growth while significantly improving margins,” said Rohini Jain, BILL CFO.” Revenue was $436.185 million in 2026-Q4. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Execute $1.0 billion share repurchase program | A supporting condition in Bill Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is Repurchase at least 3.5 million shares by 2026-Q2. | Intact | Share buybacks stop before $1 billion is repurchased | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Reduce workforce by up to 30% | A supporting condition in Bill Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is Complete up to 30% workforce reduction by 2026-Q2. | Intact | Workforce reduction is less than 20% by 2026-Q3 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.07 → $4.42 · observed estimates
$2.08B → $2.03B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.07 | $2,083,897,043 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.07 | $2,083,897,043 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.06 | $2,071,594,584 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.06 | $2,071,594,584 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.06 | $2,071,594,584 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.06 | $2,071,594,584 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.06 | $2,071,594,584 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.06 | $2,071,594,584 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.06 | $2,071,594,584 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.06 | $2,071,594,584 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.06 | $2,071,594,584 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.06 | $2,071,594,584 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.06 | $2,071,594,584 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.06 | $2,071,594,584 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.06 | $2,071,594,584 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.06 | $2,071,594,584 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.06 | $2,071,594,584 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.06 | $2,071,594,584 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.06 | $2,071,594,584 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.06 | $2,071,594,584 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.06 | $2,071,594,584 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.06 | $2,071,594,584 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.06 | $2,071,594,584 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.06 | $2,071,594,584 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.06 | $2,071,594,584 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.06 | $2,071,594,584 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.06 | $2,071,594,584 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.27 | $1,973,661,452 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.32 | $2,031,657,843 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.38 | $2,029,705,208 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.38 | $2,029,705,208 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.38 | $2,029,705,208 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.42 | $2,027,165,555 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.40 | $2,025,942,708 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.40 | $2,025,942,708 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.40 | $2,025,942,708 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.40 | $2,025,942,708 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.40 | $2,025,942,708 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.40 | $2,025,942,708 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.40 | $2,025,942,708 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.40 | $2,034,336,458 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.41 | $2,034,348,958 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.41 | $2,032,969,583 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.41 | $2,032,969,583 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.41 | $2,032,969,583 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.41 | $2,032,969,583 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.41 | $2,032,969,583 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.41 | $2,032,969,583 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.41 | $2,032,969,583 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.41 | $2,032,969,583 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.42 | $2,034,660,889 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.42 | $2,034,660,889 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.42 | $2,034,974,222 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.42 | $2,034,974,222 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.42 | $2,034,974,222 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.42 | $2,034,974,222 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.42 | $2,034,974,222 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.42 | $2,034,974,222 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.42 | $2,034,974,222 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.42 | $2,034,974,222 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.42 | $2,034,974,222 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.42 | $2,034,974,222 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.42 | $2,034,974,222 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.42 | $2,034,974,222 | 11 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.