Bill Holdings (BILL)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$49.16-3.34%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BILL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -15.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BILL — officer change
Dated 2026-06-17
CFO — Mr. Moss: Mr. Moss and Ms. Bowman entered into separation agreements, marking their departure from active roles.
Why it matters: More job cuts could show bigger problems in the company. This may hurt operations.
Worry ifBILL plans to cut more than 30% of its workforce in the coming months.
Less concerning ifNo job cuts over 30% are expected in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This reduction will affect how well the company operates. It will also change costs.
Worry ifThe company has confirmed a workforce reduction of up to 30%. It is fully done.
Less concerning ifThere are delays or changes to the planned workforce reduction.
Why it matters: Non-GAAP net income is key for checking how well the company makes money. A miss could raise worries about managing costs.
Worry ifQ1 FY27 non-GAAP net income reported below $98 million.
Less concerning ifQ1 FY27 non-GAAP net income reported at $98 million or higher.
Why it matters: This growth rate is a key indicator of overall business health. A drop could indicate market challenges.
Worry ifTotal revenue growth for Q1 FY27 reported below 9%.
Less concerning ifTotal revenue growth for Q1 FY27 reported above 12%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$224 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $490 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,324 loss on $10,000 · 43.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This reduction aims to raise margins. How well it works will affect future profits.
Watch forQ4 results show better margins and profits after the restructuring.
Also watch forQ4 results show no gains in margins or profits, even with the workforce cut.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can impact the success of BILL's transition to an AI-native company. Clarity on roles is crucial.
Watch forThey announced new leaders to boost AI skills.
Also watch forUnclear plans or more leadership changes in AI projects.
Why it matters: Updates on the $1 billion share buyback show how much management trusts the stock. It also shows their plan for using money.
Supportive ifThey announced more shares bought back under the $1 billion program.
Worry ifNo updates or a pause in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: This cut aims to make things work better. Progress can change costs and profits.
Watch forBILL says it has finished cutting jobs and expects to save money.
Also watch forBILL says there are delays or problems with the job cuts plan.
Why it matters: The workforce reduction aims to improve margins. Its success will be critical for profitability.
Supportive ifReported gross margin improves above 82% in Q4 FY26.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 81% in Q4 FY26.
Why it matters: How well the workforce reduction works will affect BILL's costs and profits in the future.
Worry ifBILL completes a workforce reduction of at least 20% by the end of Q4 FY26.
Less concerning ifBILL does not achieve a workforce reduction of at least 20% by the end of Q4 FY26.
Why it matters: This shows slower growth. It may hurt investor confidence in BILL's future.
Worry ifTotal revenue guidance for Q4 FY26 is set below $425 million.
Less concerning ifTotal revenue guidance for Q4 FY26 exceeds $435 million.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback program will show how BILL is giving value to shareholders.
Supportive ifBILL repurchases at least $200 million worth of shares under the program by the end of Q4 FY26.
Worry ifBILL does not repurchase any shares under the program by the end of Q4 FY26.
Why it matters: The new CRO will shape BILL's sales strategy and customer engagement. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifA press release confirming the appointment of a new Chief Revenue Officer within the next month.
Worry ifNo announcement of a new Chief Revenue Officer by the next earnings call on August 19, 2026.
Why it matters: Core revenue growth is key to understanding demand for BILL's services. A drop below 11% signals weaker performance.
Worry ifCore revenue growth reported below 11% for Q1 FY27.
Less concerning ifCore revenue growth reported above 14% for Q1 FY27.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show that management trusts the stock. This can help earnings per share.
Supportive ifBILL repurchases over $300 million in shares in Q1 FY27.
Worry ifBILL repurchases less than $100 million in shares in Q1 FY27.