BNY Mellon (BK)
NYSEFinancialsInvestment - Banking & Investment ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.01+0.33%
Close 2026-06-10 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInvestment - Banking & Investment ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
BNY Mellon grew revenue 13% year over year in Q1 2026. Profit margins improved by 8 points in Q1 2026. The company returned $1.4 billion to shareholders in Q1 2026.
Analysts expect revenue to fall about 25% next year. Profit margins could shrink if costs rise. Capital returns might slow if cash flow weakens.
The market expects about 25% revenue decline. Our view is more optimistic on growth and margins.
Breaks if: capital returned falls below $1 billion in any quarter
Breaks if: operating leverage improvement falls below 0% next quarter
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth in Securities Services and Market and Wealth Services. The current thesis is intact, supported by recent revenue growth and management's consistent priorities.
The market appears to price BK as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a low expectations gap. However, there is a fragility in execution quality that could impact future performance.
Management is on track with its priorities, showing improvements in growth and operating efficiency. However, there is a high risk factor due to the potential for earnings misses, despite a low miss probability.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like IBKR, BNY, and SF. Positive or negative guidance from these companies could significantly impact BK's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the positive outlook for the company. There are no new threats identified that could weaken this view. Overall, the fundamentals remain intact and the reason to own it looks solid.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: revenue falls below $4.8 billion in any quarter
Overall, BK's fundamentals are showing promise, but external factors could sway its performance. Not investment advice.