BNY Mellon (BK)
NYSEFinancialsInvestment - Banking & Investment ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$15.01+0.33%
Close 2026-06-10 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInvestment - Banking & Investment ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -84.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -24.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 59.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BK — officer change
Dated 2026-04-17
Committee Member (Risk Committee and Corporate Governance, Nominating and Social Responsibility Committee) — Mr. Lowrey: Mr. Lowrey was appointed to additional board committees.
Why it matters: BNY returned $1.4 billion in Q1 and approved a new $10 billion buyback program. Buybacks show whether capital returns continue.
Supportive ifBNY reports share repurchases under the new program in future results. Its CET1 ratio stays at or above 11.0%.
Worry ifBNY reports no buybacks in a future quarter, or its CET1 ratio falls below 11.0%.
Why it matters: BNY named growth in both service groups as its top priority. Broad growth helped lift Q1 revenue 13% year over year.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue rises year over year in both Securities Services and Market and Wealth Services. Total revenue growth stays at or above 13%.
Worry ifEither service group reports lower revenue year over year, or total revenue growth falls below 13%.
Why it matters: BNY's Q1 AUM rose 6% year over year, but cumulative net outflows partly offset market gains. Continued outflows could weaken growth.
Watch forBNY reports net AUM inflows in a future quarter. This reverses the total net outflows noted in Q1.
Also watch forBNY reports further net AUM outflows, and AUM falls year over year.
Why it matters: BNY has made better cost control a key goal. Q1 leverage was 325 basis points, with expenses up 5% year over year.
Supportive ifA future quarter reports operating leverage above 300 basis points. Expense growth stays below revenue growth.
Worry ifOperating leverage falls below 300 basis points. Expenses grow as fast as, or faster than, revenue.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$102 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $212 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,976 loss on $10,000 · 89.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.