BNY Mellon (BK)
NYSEFinancialsInvestment - Banking & Investment ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.01+0.33%
Close 2026-06-10 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInvestment - Banking & Investment ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -84.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -24.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 59.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BK — officer change
Dated 2026-04-17
Committee Member (Risk Committee and Corporate Governance, Nominating and Social Responsibility Committee) — Mr. Lowrey: Mr. Lowrey was appointed to additional board committees.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if BNY Mellon continues its growth momentum. Strong results could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifEarnings per share (EPS) exceeds $2.24, showing continued growth.
Worry ifEPS is under $2.00. This shows possible growth problems.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader financial sector weakness. This impacts BNY Mellon's outlook.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth could signal weakening demand in BNY's core businesses.
Worry ifQ2 total revenue growth below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 total revenue growth remains at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: More money returned to shareholders shows BNY cares about them and has strong cash flow.
Supportive ifBNY returned over $1.5 billion to shareholders in Q2.
Worry ifBNY returned less than $1.5 billion to shareholders in Q2.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$102 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $206 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,976 loss on $10,000 · 89.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better operating leverage means BNY works more efficiently. It also controls costs well.
Supportive ifOperating leverage improves by more than 350 basis points in Q2.
Worry ifOperating leverage fails to improve or worsens in Q2.
Why it matters: Slower growth in assets under custody may mean less client activity. It could also show market problems.
Worry ifAUC/A growth slows to below 10% year over year in Q2.
Less concerning ifAUC/A growth stays at or above 10% year over year in Q2.