Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Booking Holdings (BKNG)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$168.72-1.32%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
12.36 → 12.35 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 25 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 26 to 25; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BKNG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Return capital via dividends and stock repurchases of at least $2 billion annually | The company returns capital with $2.1 billion in stock buybacks. | Intact | Annual stock repurchases fall below $1.5 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Exhibit 99.1 Active Return of Capital to Shareholders Fourth Quarter Dividend ● Our Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $9.60 per share, payable on December 31, 2025 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on December 5, 2025.” “Stock Repurchase Program ● We repurchased $0.7 billion of stock in the quarter ended September 30, 2025 with a total remaining authorization of $23.9 billion as of September 30, 2025.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a profitable travel platform with robust earnings quality, rather than a turnaround or speculative growth story. The signal has improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but the thesis remains in a watch state because recent financial performance has lagged its industry cohort.
BKNG is rated cheap versus peers, while the valuation model shows a modest premium to peers and an expectations gap below its reference level. The priced-in signal is judged justified, with low signs of fragility; confidence in these valuation readings is medium.
Over the near term, the latest evidence includes an earnings beat, while room nights and revenue grew from 2025-Q2 to 2026-Q2 despite geopolitical headwinds. Management has raised its cost-savings ambition to about $650 million in annual run-rate savings by the end of 2027, but progress remains something to watch. Near-term miss risk is assessed as low, though the evidence notes a high-miss-rate industry and a deep miss in recent history.
The multi-year view depends on travel demand and revenue growth continuing while management delivers the expanded savings plan. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative; continued strong results and higher guidance from travel-sector bellwethers would support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis combines resilient demand and cost-saving progress with a valuation judged cheap versus peers, but execution and relative performance remain important watchpoints. The evidence is medium confidence and does not remove the risk of weaker guidance or a softer sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Advance use of Generative AI to enhance traveler and partner value | A supporting condition in Booking Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain progress in AI integration initiatives. | Intact | No meaningful AI product enhancements or partnerships announced in next 4 quarters | AI investment confirmed vs qualitative target Booking announced Q4 room nights up 1%-3% while planning higher AI investment, confirming continued execution on generative AI initiatives. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of 8-10% annually | A primary condition in Booking Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is 8-10% YoY. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 8% in FY26 | Revenue growth: -1.28% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 8-10% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 2026-1.276643 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve $550 million annual run-rate savings from Transformation Program | It saves $550 million annually from cost cuts. | Intact | Transformation Program savings fall below $400 million annual run-rate by end 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$12.29 → $12.35 · observed estimates
$32.08B → $31.96B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $12.29 | $32,082,305,950 | 29 / 35 |
| 2026-07-25 | $12.29 | $32,082,305,950 | 29 / 35 |
| 2026-07-26 | $12.30 | $32,083,648,580 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-07-27 | $12.30 | $32,083,648,580 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-07-28 | $12.30 | $32,083,648,580 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-07-29 | $12.27 | $32,051,774,480 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-07-30 | $12.27 | $32,051,774,480 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-07-31 | $12.30 | $32,023,799,830 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-08-01 | $12.29 | $32,063,179,230 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-08-02 | $12.31 | $32,039,925,563 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-08-03 | $12.28 | $32,062,901,450 | 32 / 36 |
| 2026-08-04 | $12.28 | $32,062,901,450 | 32 / 36 |
| 2026-08-05 | $12.30 | $32,074,069,310 | 32 / 36 |
| 2026-08-06 | $12.30 | $32,074,069,310 | 32 / 36 |
| 2026-08-07 | $12.39 | $32,012,571,479 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-08 | $12.38 | $32,027,613,030 | 32 / 36 |
| 2026-08-09 | $12.38 | $32,027,613,030 | 32 / 36 |
| 2026-08-10 | $12.38 | $32,027,613,030 | 32 / 36 |
| 2026-08-11 | $12.39 | $32,012,571,479 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-12 | $12.38 | $32,009,077,190 | 32 / 36 |
| 2026-08-13 | $12.38 | $32,009,077,190 | 32 / 36 |
| 2026-08-14 | $12.39 | $32,012,571,479 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-15 | $12.39 | $32,012,571,479 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-16 | $12.39 | $32,012,571,479 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-17 | $12.39 | $32,012,571,479 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-18 | $12.39 | $32,012,571,479 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-19 | $12.39 | $32,012,571,479 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-20 | $12.39 | $32,002,121,647 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-21 | $12.39 | $32,002,121,647 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-22 | $12.39 | $32,002,121,647 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-23 | $12.39 | $32,002,128,856 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-24 | $12.39 | $32,002,128,856 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-25 | $12.39 | $32,002,127,765 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-26 | $12.39 | $32,002,120,556 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-27 | $12.39 | $32,002,120,556 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-28 | $12.39 | $32,002,135,800 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-29 | $12.39 | $32,002,135,800 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-30 | $12.39 | $32,002,135,800 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-31 | $12.39 | $32,002,135,800 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-01 | $12.39 | $32,002,135,800 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-02 | $12.39 | $32,016,380,169 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-03 | $12.39 | $32,016,313,503 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-04 | $12.38 | $32,016,313,503 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-09-05 | $12.38 | $32,016,313,503 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-09-06 | $12.38 | $32,016,313,503 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-09-07 | $12.38 | $32,016,313,503 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-09-08 | $12.38 | $32,016,317,591 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-09-09 | $12.38 | $32,016,317,591 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-09-10 | $12.38 | $32,016,317,591 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-09-11 | $12.38 | $32,016,324,582 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-09-12 | $12.38 | $32,016,324,582 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-09-13 | $12.38 | $32,016,324,582 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-09-14 | $12.38 | $32,016,324,582 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-09-15 | $12.38 | $32,011,667,976 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-09-16 | $12.38 | $32,011,667,976 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-09-17 | $12.38 | $32,011,667,976 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-09-18 | $12.38 | $32,011,667,976 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-09-19 | $12.38 | $32,011,667,976 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-20 | $12.38 | $32,011,667,976 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-21 | $12.38 | $32,011,667,976 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-22 | $12.38 | $32,011,667,976 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-23 | $12.38 | $32,011,667,976 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-24 | $12.38 | $32,011,667,976 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-09-25 | $12.37 | $32,014,162,576 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-09-26 | $12.37 | $32,014,162,576 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-09-27 | $12.37 | $32,014,162,576 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-09-28 | $12.37 | $32,014,156,092 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-09-29 | $12.37 | $32,014,156,092 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-09-30 | $12.37 | $32,014,156,092 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-10-01 | $12.36 | $32,006,055,298 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-10-02 | $12.36 | $32,006,055,298 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-10-03 | $12.36 | $32,006,055,298 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-10-04 | $12.36 | $32,009,123,519 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-10-05 | $12.36 | $32,009,123,519 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-10-06 | $12.36 | $32,009,123,519 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-10-07 | $12.36 | $32,009,123,519 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-10-08 | $12.38 | $31,999,911,397 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-09 | $12.35 | $31,999,097,943 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-10 | $12.35 | $31,999,097,943 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-11 | $12.35 | $31,999,097,943 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-12 | $12.35 | $31,989,491,873 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-13 | $12.35 | $31,989,491,882 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-14 | $12.36 | $31,989,482,664 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-15 | $12.36 | $31,989,482,664 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-16 | $12.36 | $31,989,482,664 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-17 | $12.36 | $31,989,482,664 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-18 | $12.36 | $31,989,482,664 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-19 | $12.36 | $31,989,482,664 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-20 | $12.35 | $31,989,483,285 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-21 | $12.35 | $31,981,385,385 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-22 | $12.35 | $31,983,661,142 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-23 | $12.35 | $31,983,661,142 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-24 | $12.35 | $31,983,661,142 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-25 | $12.35 | $31,983,661,142 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-26 | $12.35 | $31,983,661,142 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-27 | $12.35 | $31,971,265,644 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-28 | $12.35 | $31,980,305,038 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-29 | $12.35 | $31,980,305,038 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-30 | $12.35 | $31,980,305,038 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-31 | $12.35 | $31,980,305,038 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-11-01 | $12.35 | $31,980,305,038 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-11-02 | $12.35 | $31,980,305,038 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-11-03 | $12.35 | $31,980,304,416 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-11-04 | $12.35 | $31,956,073,216 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-11-05 | $12.35 | $31,956,073,216 | 25 / 27 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 30 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 21 recorded
0 raises · 7 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.