Booking Holdings (BKNG)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$193.29-0.94%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BKNG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -29.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 39.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
BKNG — debt issuance
Dated 2026-05-11
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Senior Notes On May 11, 2026, Booking Holdings Inc. (the “ Company ”) executed three Officers’ Certificates (the “ Officers’ Certificates ”), in accordance with Sections 2.02 and 10.04 of the Indenture dated August 8, 2017 (the “ Base Indenture ” and, together with the Officers’ Certificates, the “ Indenture ”) between the Company and U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association (as successor in interest to U.S. Bank National Association), as trust…
Why it matters: Weak revenue growth could indicate ongoing challenges in the travel sector.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below 4% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth reported above 6% year over year.
Why it matters: The ongoing conflict could affect travel patterns and revenue growth.
Worry ifManagement says travel demand has dropped a lot due to the Middle East conflict.
Less concerning ifManagement says travel demand is steady or going up despite the conflict.
Why it matters: An increase shows strong cash flow. It also shows a commitment to returning money to shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement announces a dividend increase to more than $0.42 per share.
Worry ifManagement keeps the dividend at $0.42 per share or lowers it.
Why it matters: Using AI can improve customer experience and efficiency. This may lead to better profits.
Watch forManagement will give an update on new AI projects and their effects.
Also watch forNo updates or delays on AI projects mentioned in future news.
Why it matters: Ongoing disruptions may hurt bookings and revenue. This can affect overall performance.
Watch forManagement says bookings are recovering in the second half of 2026.
Also watch forManagement says travel demand is still hurting because of the conflict.
Why it matters: This means travel demand is slowing down. It could hurt future revenue and profits.
Worry ifQ3 gross bookings growth reported below 4% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross bookings growth reported above 6% year over year.
Why it matters: More savings can boost profits. It can also help with future investments.
Supportive ifManagement says they will save $650 million by the end of 2027.
Worry ifManagement lowers the savings goal from $650 million.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$150 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $356 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,061 loss on $10,000 · 30.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.