Booking Holdings (BKNG)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$168.72-1.32%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BKNG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -29.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 11.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 41.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BKNG — debt issuance
Dated 2026-05-11
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Senior Notes On May 11, 2026, Booking Holdings Inc. (the “ Company ”) executed three Officers’ Certificates (the “ Officers’ Certificates ”), in accordance with Sections 2.02 and 10.04 of the Indenture dated August 8, 2017 (the “ Base Indenture ” and, together with the Officers’ Certificates, the “ Indenture ”) between the Company and U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association (as successor in interest to U.S. Bank National Association), as trust…
Why it matters: The target rose from $400 million to $450 million to about $650 million. More savings could free cash for other plans.
Supportive ifBooking raises its yearly savings goal above about $650 million, or says it reached that rate before end-2027.
Worry ifBooking lowers the target below about $650 million or says it will miss the end-2027 date.
Why it matters: Booking's Q3 plan calls for 4% to 6% growth. Faster growth would show demand held up better than that range.
Supportive ifQ3 gross bookings grow more than 6% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 gross bookings grow 4% or less year over year.
Why it matters: Direct bookings made up a mid-fifties share of room nights over the past four quarters. A drop may point to weaker direct reach.
Worry ifThe reported direct-channel share of room nights falls below the mid-fifties range.
Less concerning ifThe reported direct-channel share stays in the mid-fifties range or rises.
Why it matters: Booking guided to 3% to 5% growth. A lower result would show travel demand weakened more than its plan assumed.
Worry ifQ3 room nights grow less than 3% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 room nights grow 3% or more year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$148 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $364 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,250 loss on $10,000 · 32.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management names AI as a key plan, but has not shared a measure of its impact. A clear result would show progress beyond stated intent.
Supportive ifBooking reports a measured gain from AI, such as more bookings, higher conversion, or lower service costs.
Worry ifBooking reports no measurable AI result or drops AI from its stated priorities.