Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
BlackRock (BLK)
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-05
$1170.67-4.39%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
64.36 → 65.10 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BLK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Effective management of private credit capabilities | A supporting condition in BlackRock's published investment case. The stated target is Stable leadership and no major valuation issues in private credit. | Under Pressure | Further CEO departures or valuation probes in private credit | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a large financial business with growth initiatives in private markets, core fees, and technology services. The long-term thesis is intact, though earnings quality is rated fragile and management execution is neutral overall.
BLK is valued at a durable premium to peers, and its valuation has risen recently. The expectations gap is modest, while the priced-in assessment calls the premium justified; the evidence does not suggest that the full set of execution and market risks is reflected in valuation.
Near term, recent results have been solid, with earnings beats in July and October, and the estimated chance of a miss is low. Over the multi-year view, fee growth and technology services support the business, while progress toward the private-markets fundraising goal is mixed.
The thesis depends on continued growth in organic base fees and technology services, plus progress toward the private-markets fundraising goal. Near term, a guidance cut or rate cuts would be unfavorable; continued strong results and guidance from financial-sector peers would support sector momentum.
Over the next one to three years, BLK’s growth initiatives and recent performance support an intact thesis, but the premium valuation and fragile earnings quality keep execution and sector conditions important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We’ve raised $68 billion in private markets over the last twelve months, and our AI Infrastructure Partnership made its first deployment this quarter.” “Private markets net inflows of $9 billion were led by private credit and infrastructure, where we have strong fundraising and deployment momentum.”
Private markets fundraising reaches $400B by 2030 | BlackRock is growing private markets fundraising toward $400 billion by 2030. | Intact | Private markets fundraising falls below $300 billion by 2030 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We’ve raised $68 billion in private markets over the last twelve months, and our AI Infrastructure Partnership made its first deployment this quarter.” “Private markets net inflows of $9 billion were led by private credit and infrastructure, where we have strong fundraising and deployment momentum.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Technology services and subscription revenue grows 22% YoY | Technology services revenue grew 22% last year, driven by Aladdin and acquisitions. | Intact | Technology services revenue growth falls below 10% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “That position is powering organic growth and value for our shareholders.” ““We’re engaged with clients across every channel, geography, and asset class.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$64.14 → $65.10 · observed estimates
$32.53B → $32.64B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $64.14 | $32,526,510,140 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $64.37 | $32,649,843,470 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $64.37 | $32,649,843,470 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $64.37 | $32,649,843,470 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $64.37 | $32,649,843,470 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $64.37 | $32,649,843,470 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $64.37 | $32,649,843,470 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $64.37 | $32,649,843,470 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $64.37 | $32,649,843,470 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $64.37 | $32,649,843,470 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $64.37 | $32,649,843,470 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $64.37 | $32,649,843,470 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $64.11 | $32,649,843,470 | 17 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $64.11 | $32,649,843,470 | 17 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $64.50 | $32,384,825,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $64.11 | $32,649,843,470 | 17 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $64.11 | $32,649,843,470 | 17 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $64.11 | $32,649,843,470 | 17 / 9 |
| 2026-08-11 | $64.50 | $32,384,825,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $64.15 | $32,649,843,470 | 17 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $64.15 | $32,649,843,470 | 17 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $64.50 | $32,384,825,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $64.50 | $32,384,825,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $64.50 | $32,384,825,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $64.50 | $32,384,825,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $64.50 | $32,384,825,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $64.50 | $32,384,825,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $64.60 | $32,384,825,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $64.60 | $32,384,825,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $64.60 | $32,384,825,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $64.60 | $32,384,825,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $64.60 | $32,384,825,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $64.60 | $32,384,825,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $64.60 | $32,384,825,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $64.60 | $32,384,825,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $64.60 | $32,384,825,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $64.60 | $32,415,173,627 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $64.60 | $32,415,173,627 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $64.60 | $32,415,173,627 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $64.60 | $32,415,173,627 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $64.43 | $32,494,325,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $64.43 | $32,494,325,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $64.43 | $32,494,325,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $64.43 | $32,494,325,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $64.43 | $32,494,325,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $64.43 | $32,494,325,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $64.43 | $32,494,325,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $64.43 | $32,494,325,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $64.46 | $32,494,325,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $64.46 | $32,494,325,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $64.46 | $32,494,325,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $64.46 | $32,494,325,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $64.46 | $32,494,325,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $64.46 | $32,494,325,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $64.46 | $32,494,325,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $64.46 | $32,494,325,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $64.46 | $32,494,325,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $64.46 | $32,494,325,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $64.46 | $32,494,325,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $64.46 | $32,494,325,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $64.46 | $32,494,325,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $64.46 | $32,494,325,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $64.46 | $32,494,325,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $64.46 | $32,494,325,825 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $64.43 | $32,480,814,204 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $64.43 | $32,480,814,204 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $64.43 | $32,480,814,204 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $64.43 | $32,480,814,204 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $64.43 | $32,480,814,204 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $64.43 | $32,480,814,204 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $64.43 | $32,480,814,204 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $64.45 | $32,478,028,573 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $64.45 | $32,478,028,573 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $64.45 | $32,478,028,573 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $64.36 | $32,475,053,577 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $64.44 | $32,518,515,115 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $64.31 | $32,472,682,566 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $64.20 | $32,441,144,104 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $64.20 | $32,441,144,104 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $64.20 | $32,441,144,104 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $64.20 | $32,441,144,104 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $64.17 | $32,425,820,525 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $64.14 | $32,388,359,756 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $64.68 | $32,593,682,198 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $64.82 | $32,593,682,198 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $64.82 | $32,593,682,198 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $64.82 | $32,593,682,198 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $64.91 | $32,635,307,744 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $64.91 | $32,635,307,744 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $65.10 | $32,622,461,591 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $65.10 | $32,622,461,591 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $65.10 | $32,622,461,591 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $65.10 | $32,622,461,591 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $65.10 | $32,622,461,591 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $65.10 | $32,622,461,591 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $65.10 | $32,622,461,591 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $65.10 | $32,622,461,591 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $65.10 | $32,610,461,591 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $65.10 | $32,641,230,821 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $65.10 | $32,641,230,821 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $65.10 | $32,641,230,821 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $65.10 | $32,641,230,821 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $65.10 | $32,641,230,821 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $65.10 | $32,641,230,821 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-05 | $65.10 | $32,641,230,821 | 9 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 17 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 14 recorded
3 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 4 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.