Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
BNY Mellon (BNY)
NYSEFinancialsInvestment - Banking & Investment ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$147.49-3.42%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInvestment - Banking & Investment ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
10.23 → 10.41 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BNY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase quarterly dividend by 19% to $0.63 starting Q3 2026 | A supporting condition in BNY Mellon's published investment case. The stated target is >=0.63 USD_PER_SHARE. | Intact | Dividend increase to $0.63 not approved or delayed beyond Q3 2026 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BNY is a large financial-services business with a growth-and-execution thesis, rather than a turnaround. The thesis is currently intact and the latest signal has improved to mildly favorable, though earnings quality is assessed as fragile.
BNY is valued at a premium to peers, and the evidence describes that premium as justified, with expectations broadly aligned with the business outlook. The expectations gap is modest, so the valuation leaves limited room for weaker execution to be absorbed.
Near term, Q3 revenue rose to $5,676 million from $5,081 million a year earlier, and diluted EPS increased to $2.34 from $1.88. Management linked fee growth to new business and higher client activity, but negative operating leverage in Q3 tempers the earnings progress; the supplied miss-risk estimate is low, while recent peer misses remain a caution.
Over the next few quarters, the case depends on organic growth continuing and management improving operating leverage without cutting guidance. Lower interest rates could weigh on the financial sector, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support momentum.
Over a 1-to-3-year horizon, BNY’s growth evidence supports an intact thesis, but mixed execution and a premium valuation make continued delivery important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Capital and liquidity • $436 million of dividends to common shareholders (a) ; $937 million of common share repurchases.” “Capital and liquidity • $371 million of dividends to common shareholders (a); $1.1 billion of common share repurchases.”
Sustain EPS growth to at least $2.24 in Q1 2026 | A primary condition in BNY Mellon's published investment case. The stated target is >=2.24 USD_PER_SHARE. | Intact | EPS falls below $2.24 in Q1 2026 | Diluted EPS: $2.34 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=2.24 USD_PER_SHARE. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 30, 20262.34 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “With broad-based growth across our platforms, we increased revenue by 12% year-over-year, delivering significant operating leverage and earnings per share growth of 24%.” “We grew revenue by 13% year-over-year to a record $5.7 billion and generated 600 basis points of positive operating leverage, a pre-tax margin of 40% and an ROTCE of 31%.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Maintain revenue at or above $5.4 billion in Q1 2026 | A primary condition in BNY Mellon's published investment case. The stated target is >=5.4 USD_BILLIONS. | Intact | revenue falls below $5.4 billion in Q1 2026 | Revenue: $5.698B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=5.4 USD_BILLIONS. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 30, 20265,698,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$10.23 → $10.41 · observed estimates
$23.25B → $23.73B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $10.23 | $23,249,671,490 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $10.23 | $23,249,671,490 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $10.23 | $23,249,671,490 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $10.23 | $23,249,671,490 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $10.23 | $23,249,671,490 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $10.23 | $23,249,671,490 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $10.23 | $23,249,671,490 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $10.23 | $23,249,671,490 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $10.23 | $23,249,671,490 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $10.23 | $23,249,671,490 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $10.23 | $23,249,671,490 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $10.23 | $23,249,671,490 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $10.23 | $23,249,671,490 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $10.23 | $23,249,671,490 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $10.19 | $23,124,520,834 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $10.25 | $23,293,318,210 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $10.25 | $23,293,318,210 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $10.25 | $23,293,318,210 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-11 | $10.19 | $23,124,520,834 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $10.25 | $23,293,318,210 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $10.25 | $23,293,318,210 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $10.19 | $23,124,520,834 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $10.19 | $23,124,520,834 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $10.19 | $23,124,520,834 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $10.19 | $23,124,520,834 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $10.19 | $23,124,520,834 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $10.19 | $23,124,520,834 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $10.25 | $23,172,547,272 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $10.25 | $23,172,334,652 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $10.26 | $23,184,034,652 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $10.26 | $23,184,034,652 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $10.26 | $23,184,034,652 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $10.26 | $23,184,034,652 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $10.26 | $23,184,034,652 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $10.26 | $23,204,634,652 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $10.28 | $23,210,504,983 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $10.28 | $23,210,504,983 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $10.27 | $23,248,893,470 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $10.23 | $23,238,775,883 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $10.23 | $23,279,521,795 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $10.27 | $23,303,837,995 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $10.27 | $23,303,837,995 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $10.27 | $23,303,837,995 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $10.27 | $23,303,837,995 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $10.27 | $23,303,837,995 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $10.27 | $23,303,837,995 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $10.27 | $23,303,837,995 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $10.27 | $23,303,837,995 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $10.32 | $23,645,490,871 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $10.32 | $23,645,490,871 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $10.34 | $23,645,490,871 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $10.34 | $23,645,490,871 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $10.34 | $23,645,490,871 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $10.36 | $23,675,358,144 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $10.39 | $23,675,358,144 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $10.39 | $23,675,358,144 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $10.39 | $23,675,358,144 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $10.39 | $23,675,358,144 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $10.39 | $23,675,358,144 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $10.39 | $23,675,358,144 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $10.39 | $23,675,358,144 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $10.39 | $23,675,358,144 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $10.39 | $23,675,358,144 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $10.41 | $23,725,173,319 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $10.41 | $23,725,173,319 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $10.41 | $23,725,173,319 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $10.41 | $23,725,173,319 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $10.41 | $23,725,173,319 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-11-05 | $10.41 | $23,725,173,319 | 12 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 3 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.