BNY Mellon (BNY)
NYSEFinancialsInvestment - Banking & Investment ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$164.84+0.31%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInvestment - Banking & Investment ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BNY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 18.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -4.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers
BNY — capital allocation — Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders
Dated 2026-07-23
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. Upon issuance of the Series N Noncumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, liquidation preference $100,000 per share, par value $0.01 per share (the “Series N Preferred Stock”) by The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (the “Registrant”) on July 23, 2026, the ability of the Registrant to declare or pay dividends on, or purchase, redeem or otherwise acquire, shares of its common stock or any shares of the Registrant that rank junior to the Seri…
Why it matters: A confirmed dividend increase shows good money management. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe official announcement shows a 19% increase in the cash dividend.
Worry ifNo announcement of the dividend increase by the next earnings call.
Why it matters: Growth in assets under custody shows client activity. A drop may show less demand.
Worry ifAUC/A growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifAUC/A growth reported above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth is key for BNY's performance. A solid Q3 would show momentum.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenue is over $5.7 billion. This continues the growth trend from last year.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue falls below $5.5 billion, indicating a slowdown in growth.
Why it matters: The dividend increase shows BNY wants to return money to shareholders. This shows strong finances and trust in future earnings.
Supportive ifThe company raises the quarterly cash dividend to $0.63 per share.
Worry ifThe company does not increase the quarterly cash dividend as planned.
Why it matters: New board members can change company strategy. Malhotra's experience may improve how the board works.
Watch forMalhotra takes part in board decisions. This leads to new strategic plans.
Also watch forThere are no clear changes in board choices or plans since Malhotra was elected.
Why it matters: A drop in average deposits may show less client confidence or activity.
Worry ifAverage deposits drop compared to last year for two quarters in a row.
Less concerning ifAverage deposits increase compared to last year for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: If growth drops below the median, it may mean a slowdown in the financial sector. This could affect BNY's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median for the last three years.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: EPS growth under 20% may show weaker earnings. This could impact stock performance.
Worry ifQ3 diluted EPS growth is below 20% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 diluted EPS growth remains at or above 20% year-over-year.
Why it matters: If they approve the dividend increase, it shows they use money well. It also shows they are confident about future earnings.
Supportive ifThe board approves the 19% dividend increase from $0.53 to $0.63 per share.
Worry ifThe board does not approve the dividend increase.
Why it matters: If AUM growth slows under 5%, it may show less client activity and market issues.
Worry ifAUM growth falls below 5% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifAUM growth remains above 5% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The dividend increase signals confidence in future earnings. It could attract more investors.
Supportive ifThe quarterly cash dividend is paid at $0.63 per share without issues.
Worry ifThe dividend is not paid as announced or is reduced.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in BNY's strong performance. It would indicate potential challenges in maintaining momentum in the current market.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue growth is below 10% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 total revenue growth is above 10% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Net interest income is important for making money. A slowdown may show problems with interest rates or competition.
Worry ifNet interest income growth is below 15% year-over-year in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet interest income growth is above 15% year-over-year in Q3.
Why it matters: His experience may affect BNY's strategy. This change could improve governance and decision-making.
Watch forVikram Malhotra is now on the Board as an independent director.
Also watch forThe announcement of his joining is delayed or canceled.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$93 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $212 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,015 loss on $10,000 · 10.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.