BNY Mellon (BNY)
NYSEFinancialsInvestment - Banking & Investment ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$147.49-3.42%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInvestment - Banking & Investment ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BNY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BNY — capital allocation — Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders
Dated 2026-10-28
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. Upon issuance of the Series O Noncumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, liquidation preference $100,000 per share, par value $0.01 per share (the “Series O Preferred Stock”) by The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (the “Registrant”) on October 28, 2026, the ability of the Registrant to declare or pay dividends on, or purchase, redeem or otherwise acquire, shares of its common stock or any shares of the Registrant that rank junior to the S…
Why it matters: Fee growth came from new business and more client activity. A slowdown would test BNY's broad growth plan.
Supportive ifQ4 fee revenue grows at least 10% year over year, with new business or client activity cited as a driver.
Worry ifQ4 fee revenue grows less than 5% year over year, or falls, as new business and client activity weaken.
Why it matters: BNY issued Series O preferred stock on October 28. The filing says it affects common dividends and share purchases.
Worry ifA filing or company notice shows a new limit on common dividends or share buybacks tied to Series O.
Less concerning ifBNY declares common dividends and buys back shares, with no new stated limit tied to Series O.
Why it matters: The stated dividend increase is a clear test of BNY's capital plans. The Q3 release reports total dividends, not the per-share rate.
Supportive ifBNY declares a common dividend per share at least 19% above the prior rate.
Worry ifBNY's declared common dividend per share is less than 19% above the prior rate, or is reduced.
Why it matters: BNY's AUM rose 2% year over year, but client outflows weighed on growth. Positive flows would strengthen the case for lasting fee growth.
Supportive ifBNY reports net AUM inflows for a quarter, rather than cumulative net outflows.
Worry ifBNY reports continued net AUM outflows and AUM falls year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$78 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $226 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,650 loss on $10,000 · 16.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.