Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$145.56+8.96%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BOOT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 25.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BOOT — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-29
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On July 28, 2026, Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into that certain Amendment No. 6 to Credit Agreement (the “Amendment”), by and among Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, the Company, Boot Barn, Inc., Sheplers, LLC, Sheplers Holding LLC, and the lenders named therein, which amends that certain Credit Agreement, dated as of June 29, 2015 (as amended by Amendment No. 1 to Credit Agreement, dated as of January 25, 2017, Amendment N…
Why it matters: The latest full-year sales range is $2.565 billion to $2.593 billion. Results below its floor would weaken the growth plan.
Worry ifFiscal 2027 sales come in below $2.565 billion, or Boot Barn cuts its sales range below that level.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2027 sales meet or exceed $2.565 billion and the company keeps its sales range unchanged or raises it.
Why it matters: Boot Barn raised its store-opening plan to 75–80 stores. Strong openings would back its expansion plan; weak openings could add costs without enough sales.
Watch forThe company opens at least 75 stores in fiscal 2027. New stores bring in more sales than their original plans.
Also watch forThe company opens fewer than 75 stores. Or, new stores bring in less sales than their original plans.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$167 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $471 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,630 loss on $10,000 · 46.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.