Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$154.29+4.70%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BOOT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 4.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BOOT — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-29
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On July 28, 2026, Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into that certain Amendment No. 6 to Credit Agreement (the “Amendment”), by and among Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, the Company, Boot Barn, Inc., Sheplers, LLC, Sheplers Holding LLC, and the lenders named therein, which amends that certain Credit Agreement, dated as of June 29, 2015 (as amended by Amendment No. 1 to Credit Agreement, dated as of January 25, 2017, Amendment N…
Why it matters: Keeping this margin shows Boot Barn can manage costs and prices well. This helps profits.
Supportive ifMerchandise margin was between $1.326 billion and $1.349 billion. This is about 51.4% of sales.
Worry ifMerchandise margin falls below 51.4%.
Why it matters: Achieving this growth shows Boot Barn is on track with its financial goals. It reflects strong demand and effective execution.
Supportive ifQ1 2026 revenue was between $574 million and $584 million. This shows 14% to 16% growth.
Worry ifQ1 2026 revenue growth below 14%.
Why it matters: Sales in this range show Boot Barn's ability to grow. It reflects overall business health.
Supportive ifTotal sales reported at $584 million or higher.
Worry ifTotal sales are below $574 million.
Why it matters: Opening new stores is key to Boot Barn's growth strategy. Missing this target could signal slower expansion.
Worry ifBoot Barn opens fewer than 70 new stores in fiscal 2027.
Less concerning ifBoot Barn opens 70 or more new stores in fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: This means the company is not hitting its revenue goals. It raises worries about future performance.
Worry ifTotal sales growth reported at 13% or higher for Q2.
Less concerning ifTotal sales growth reported below 13%.
Why it matters: A drop in gross profit margin may show higher costs or pricing pressures. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifGross profit margin for Q2 falls below 36.3%.
Less concerning ifGross profit margin for Q2 remains above 37.1%.
Why it matters: This metric shows how well stores are performing. A drop below 2% signals weakness.
Worry ifConsolidated same store sales growth of 2% or less for Q2.
Less concerning ifSame store sales grew more than 2%.
Why it matters: Keeping guidance shows strong control and profit. It shows Boot Barn can manage costs well.
Watch forOperating income is between $297 million and $301 million. This confirms the guidance.
Also watch forOperating income is below $297 million. This shows challenges in hitting profit targets.
Why it matters: Total sales are key to growth. Missing this target raises concerns about demand.
Worry ifTotal sales reported below $572 million for Q2.
Less concerning ifTotal sales reported above $572 million for Q2.
Why it matters: E-commerce growth is crucial for overall sales. A drop below 10% could signal issues.
Worry ifE-commerce same store sales growth reported below 10% for Q2.
Less concerning ifE-commerce same store sales growth reported above 10% for Q2.
Why it matters: New store openings drive growth. Fewer than 70 openings could hurt future sales.
Worry ifFewer than 70 new stores opened in fiscal 2027.
Less concerning if70 or more new stores opened in fiscal 2027.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$180 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $462 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,501 loss on $10,000 · 35.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.