Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Bowhead Specialty Holdings, Inc. (BOW)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$34.21+0.32%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.44 → 2.43 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BOW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain EPS guidance at $0.48 for 2026 | The company maintains EPS guidance at $0.48 for 2026, supported by strong Q1 net income. | Intact | EPS falls below $0.45 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.38 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.48. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 20260.38 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BOW is a growth-oriented financial business with robust earnings quality and strong recent performance. Its long-term thesis is intact, though confidence has eased from high to medium and the evidence covers only the past three to six months.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a 1.36 premium measure and a durable premium as the main driver. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting current expectations may run ahead of what the evidence supports; fragility is rated low, but that does not remove the risk of disappointment.
Near term, gross written premiums grew 28.2% year over year in the second quarter of 2026, above management’s 20% growth priority, while diluted earnings per share matched its guidance in both recent quarters. Reinsurance progress is mixed, and a recent earnings beat and M&A agreement were accompanied by a litigation filing; the evidence does not detail their longer-term effects.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on BOW sustaining premium growth and maintaining its earnings guidance, while making further progress on reinsurance. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, and the supplied evidence also flags rate cuts as a sector headwind; continued strength at sector peers could support momentum.
For the next one to three years, the business setup is supported by strong growth and recent execution, but an expensive valuation makes continued delivery important. The evidence is mixed on management execution and forward risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Bowhead Specialty Holdings aims for 20% growth in gross written premiums in 2026. |
| Intact |
| GWP growth falls below 15% YoY in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Bowhead Chief Executive Officer, Stephen Sills, commented, “Our third quarter results reflect the continued execution of our strategy, with gross written premiums increasing almost 11%, adjusted net income growing 16%, and adjusted return on equity reaching 15.9% for the quarter.” “Our digital businesses grew to almost 9% of total gross written premiums, demonstrating that our complementary craft and digital underwriting models are working as intended and broadening our opportunities for disciplined premium growth across market cycles.” Revenue was $171.766 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Enhance reinsurance agreements to support growth and risk management | A supporting condition in Bowhead Specialty Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or improve reinsurance terms supporting growth. | Improving | Material weakening or termination of key reinsurance agreements | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.41 → $2.43 · observed estimates
$0.81B → $1.22B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.41 | $808,559,860 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.41 | $808,559,860 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.41 | $808,559,860 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.41 | $808,559,860 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.41 | $808,559,860 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.41 | $808,559,860 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.41 | $808,559,860 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.41 | $808,559,860 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.39 | $1,214,512,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.41 | $808,559,860 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.41 | $808,559,860 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.41 | $808,559,860 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.42 | $815,182,360 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.42 | $815,182,360 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.41 | $1,235,372,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.42 | $815,182,360 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.42 | $815,182,360 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.42 | $815,182,360 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.42 | $815,182,360 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.42 | $815,182,360 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.41 | $1,235,372,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.41 | $1,235,372,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.41 | $1,235,372,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.41 | $1,235,372,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.41 | $1,235,372,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.41 | $1,235,372,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.41 | $1,235,372,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.42 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.44 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.43 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.43 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.43 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.43 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.43 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.43 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.43 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.43 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.43 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.43 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.43 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.43 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.43 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.43 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.43 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.43 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.43 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.43 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.43 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.43 | $1,247,533,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.43 | $1,221,408,500 | 5 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.