Bowhead Specialty Holdings, Inc. (BOW)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$34.10-0.18%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BOW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 74.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 64.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 25 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BOW — litigation filed
Dated 2026-08-03
Other Events. On August 3, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its entry into the Merger Agreement. A copy of the Company’s press release is filed herewith as Exhibit 99.2 and is incorporated herein by reference. 3 Forward-Looking Statements Statements in this Current Report on Form 8-K, and any related oral statements, contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Some of the forward-looking statements can be id…
Why it matters: Management set a 20% growth goal for 2026. Q2 growth was 28.2%, above that mark.
Worry ifQ3 gross written premiums grow less than 20% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross written premiums grow 20% or more year over year.
Why it matters: The stated 2026 EPS goal is $0.48. Bowhead reported $0.48 per share in both Q1 and Q2.
Worry ifReported 2026 diluted EPS is below $0.48 per share.
Less concerning ifReported 2026 diluted EPS is $0.48 per share or higher.
Why it matters: The loss ratio rose to 67.3% in Q2 as current-year losses increased. A further rise would add pressure to underwriting results.
Worry ifThe Q3 loss ratio is above 67.3%.
Less concerning ifThe Q3 loss ratio is 67.3% or lower.
Why it matters: American Family agreed to acquire Bowhead. If the deal closes, it would settle the main near-term company event.
Watch forBowhead reports that stockholders approved the merger and that the deal closed on its stated terms.
Also watch forBowhead reports that the merger vote failed, the deal ended, or closing conditions were not met.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$23 on $10,000 · ±0.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $332 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,630 loss on $10,000 · 26.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.