Bowhead Specialty Holdings, Inc. (BOW)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$33.65+0.03%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BOW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 14.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 70.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 55.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BOW — litigation filed
Dated 2026-08-03
Other Events. On August 3, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its entry into the Merger Agreement. A copy of the Company’s press release is filed herewith as Exhibit 99.2 and is incorporated herein by reference. 3 Forward-Looking Statements Statements in this Current Report on Form 8-K, and any related oral statements, contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Some of the forward-looking statements can be id…
Why it matters: Management aims for 20% growth in gross written premiums for 2026. Sustaining this growth indicates strong business momentum.
Supportive ifGross written premiums increase by more than 20% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifGross written premiums growth falls below 20% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Maintaining EPS guidance shows confidence in earnings stability. A change could raise concerns.
Watch forQ2 EPS guidance confirmed at $0.48.
Also watch forQ2 EPS guidance lowered below $0.48.
Why it matters: Bowhead aims for 20% GWP growth in 2026. Progress reports will indicate if this target is on track.
Supportive ifManagement reports GWP growth of 15% or more in the next quarterly update.
Worry ifGWP growth reported below 10% in the next quarterly update.
Why it matters: Better reinsurance agreements help manage risk. They also support company growth.
Watch forNew terms in reinsurance agreements have been announced.
Also watch forThere are no changes to the current reinsurance agreements. There are also no negative updates.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$74 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $391 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,095 loss on $10,000 · 30.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Achieving 20% growth in gross written premiums is key to Bowhead's growth strategy.
Supportive ifGWP growth rate hits or exceeds 20% year over year.
Worry ifGWP growth rate falls below 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Improving reinsurance deals is important. Updates will show if Bowhead is managing risks better.
Supportive ifLook for news on new or better reinsurance deals that lower risk.
Worry ifWatch for no news on reinsurance deals or bad feedback on current ones.
Why it matters: Lawsuits could change the merger's timeline and affect Bowhead's stock. Investors should watch for legal news.
Worry ifA court ruling or settlement that helps Bowhead in the merger lawsuits.
Less concerning ifA court ruling or settlement that hurts the merger or Bowhead's business.
Why it matters: The financial sector's growth is slowing. Bowhead's performance may reflect this trend.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Management aims for $0.48 EPS by 2026. This shows steady profits.
Supportive ifNet income in Q3 reports at $0.48 EPS or higher.
Worry ifNet income in Q3 reports below $0.48 EPS.
Why it matters: Strong investment income helps overall profits. A drop may show investment issues.
Worry ifQ2 net investment income growth reported below 40% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 net investment income growth exceeds 40% year over year.
Why it matters: Management has set EPS guidance at $0.48 for 2026. Maintaining this guidance signals consistent earnings performance.
Supportive ifManagement says EPS guidance is still $0.48 for Q3.
Worry ifManagement revises EPS guidance down from $0.48 in Q3.
Why it matters: Legal issues could affect the merger and Bowhead's work. Keeping track helps understand risks.
Worry ifNo new litigation filed related to the merger within the next quarter.
Less concerning ifNew legal cases that challenge the merger agreement.
Why it matters: The merger may change Bowhead's strategy and finances. Good news could boost investor trust.
Watch forLook for news on approvals or good news about the merger.
Also watch forDelays or issues that slow down the merger process.