Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. (BRCB)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.57-3.82%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.28 → 0.26 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BRCB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain adjusted EBITDA of $33.5-$34.5 million in 2026 | Profit margins remain stable with adjusted EBITDA guidance near $34 million. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $33.5 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an expansion-driven consumer business, with a thesis that depends on adding stores while maintaining revenue progress. Management has continued to emphasize disciplined expansion, but the overall thesis state is watch because recent financial performance trails its industry cohort.
The valuation signal is mixed: one measure says BRCB is cheap versus peers, while another shows a 0.54 premium to peers. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting the market’s assumptions may be demanding; the snapshot labels pricing justified and fragility low.
Near term, management’s revenue guidance is on track: it reaffirmed the 2026 range, and quarterly revenue rose from the first to the second quarter. Store growth is steady, while planned capital spending rose modestly; erratic earnings surprises and smaller-company risk leave room for execution setbacks.
A guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful negative and could prompt analysts to reduce estimates. Sector conditions are another swing factor: continued strength from MCD, SBUX, and YUM would support the broader consumer discretionary backdrop, while weaker results or guidance could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the long-term thesis depends on disciplined expansion translating into sustained revenue progress, with sector conditions and guidance execution as key tests. Recent progress is encouraging, but relative performance and high risk warrant continued attention. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margins remain stable with adjusted EBITDA guidance near $34 million. |
| Intact |
| Capex falls below $30 million or exceeds $50 million in FY26 |
Capital expenditures: $16.209M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$40.5 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 202616,209,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “1 Full Year 2026 Outlook The Company is updating its full year 2026 guidance to: • 38 new store openings • Total Revenue in the range of $255 to $257 million • Same Store Sales growth in the mid-single digits • Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $34 to $35 million (3) • Capital Expenditures in the range of $42 to $43 million which includes anticipated tenant improvement allowances (1) Same Store Sales Growth and total store operating weeks are defined in the section "Key Performance Measures".” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve full year 2026 revenue of $255-$257 million | A primary condition in Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $255 million. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $255 million in FY26 | Revenue: $62.999M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $255 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 202662,999,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.28 → $0.26 · observed estimates
$0.31B → $0.32B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.28 | $313,264,747 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.28 | $313,264,747 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.28 | $313,252,247 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.28 | $313,252,247 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.27 | $313,264,430 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.27 | $313,264,430 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.27 | $313,264,430 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.27 | $313,264,430 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.27 | $313,264,430 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.27 | $313,264,430 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.27 | $313,264,430 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.27 | $313,264,430 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.27 | $313,264,430 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.27 | $313,264,430 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.28 | $313,252,247 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.27 | $313,264,430 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.27 | $313,264,430 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.27 | $313,264,430 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.27 | $313,264,430 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.27 | $313,264,430 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.28 | $313,252,247 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.28 | $313,252,247 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.28 | $313,252,247 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.28 | $313,252,247 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.28 | $313,252,247 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.28 | $313,252,247 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.28 | $313,252,247 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.28 | $315,142,230 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.28 | $315,520,168 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.28 | $315,520,168 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.28 | $315,520,168 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.28 | $315,520,168 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.28 | $315,520,168 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.28 | $315,520,168 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.28 | $315,520,168 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.28 | $315,520,168 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.28 | $315,520,168 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.28 | $315,520,168 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.28 | $315,520,168 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.28 | $315,520,168 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.28 | $315,520,168 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.28 | $315,520,168 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.28 | $315,520,168 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.28 | $315,520,168 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.28 | $315,520,168 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.28 | $315,520,168 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.28 | $315,520,168 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.28 | $315,520,168 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.28 | $315,520,168 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.28 | $315,520,168 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.28 | $315,520,168 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.28 | $315,520,168 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.28 | $315,520,168 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.28 | $315,520,168 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.28 | $315,520,168 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.28 | $315,517,230 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.28 | $315,517,230 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.28 | $315,517,230 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.28 | $315,517,230 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.28 | $315,517,230 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.28 | $315,517,230 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.28 | $315,517,230 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.28 | $315,517,230 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.28 | $315,517,230 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.28 | $315,517,230 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.28 | $317,533,977 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.28 | $317,533,977 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.28 | $317,533,977 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.28 | $317,533,977 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.28 | $317,470,737 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.28 | $317,470,737 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.28 | $317,470,737 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.28 | $317,470,737 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.28 | $317,470,737 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.28 | $317,470,737 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.28 | $317,470,737 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.28 | $317,470,737 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.28 | $317,470,737 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.28 | $317,470,737 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.28 | $317,470,737 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.28 | $317,470,737 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.28 | $317,470,737 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.28 | $317,470,737 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.28 | $317,899,308 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.26 | $318,014,374 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.26 | $318,014,374 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.26 | $318,014,360 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.26 | $318,014,360 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.26 | $318,014,360 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.26 | $318,071,503 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.26 | $318,071,503 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.26 | $318,071,503 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.26 | $318,071,503 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.26 | $318,071,503 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.26 | $318,071,503 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.26 | $318,071,503 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.26 | $318,071,503 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.26 | $318,071,503 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.26 | $318,071,503 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.26 | $318,071,503 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.26 | $318,071,503 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.26 | $318,071,503 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.26 | $318,071,503 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.26 | $318,071,503 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.